Kansas City Chiefs (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS)
AFC Wild Card Playoff Round
Date/Time: Saturday, January 4, 2014 at 4:35PM EST
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
TV: NBC
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: KC +2.5/IND -2.5
Over/Under Total: 46.5
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In a wild card playoff game featuring 11-5 teams, the Kansas City Chiefs face the Indianapolis Colts. The 5th seeded Chiefs had this spot locked up since before last week, yet nearly beat the Chargers on Sunday with their backups in the game, losing dramatically in overtime. The Colts, meanwhile, are the 4th seed and look to duplicate their performance of two weeks ago, when they spanked the Chiefs in Arrowhead, 23-7.
When looking for teams in the AFC other than Denver and New England to win the conference, the Colts surface as an interesting option. Sure, they’re enigmatic, but among their 11 wins are high-quality triumphs over this Chiefs team, the Broncos, in addition to beating NFC powers San Francisco and Seattle. But there have been some clunkers along the way. They’ve had this division locked up for several weeks, but still closed out the season with 3 straight wins and have a good look and vibe headed into the postseason.
When looking at the Colts from afar, it’s hard to see how they managed to win their division and beat a group of top Super Bowl contenders. Their defense is the 20th-ranked unit in the NFL. They struggle to run the ball and their pass-attack is middling at best. In addition, they’ve lost a lot of players on both sides of the ball, including top weapon WR Reggie Wayne. In a weird way, it’s even more impressive that they has such a successful season with nothing about them really jumping off the paper. Attribute it to the steely stewardship of budding field general Andrew Luck, chemistry, and good coaching, namely how they play as a team and how everyone knows their roles. On one hand, you might say “Their defense isn’t that good and their best offensive weapon is T.Y. Hilton.” But that’s not really a dig, it’s a compliment to how they extracted so much out of so little. Teams like that are scary and getting too wrapped up in what lies “on paper” could lead you astray when judging the Colts. In the past month, they have really congealed after a midseason period where they seemed a bit lost at sea.
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The Chiefs are a handful. Sure, a red-hot start grew more and more lukewarm as the level of their competition rose. Only 1 of their first 9 opponents (all wins) were against a team that ended up in the playoffs and that was a nosediving Eagles team. They are since 2-5 and they’re not exactly hitting the playoffs with a head of steam. Still, you can only be so critical of an 11-win team coming off a 2-14 season. The postseason represents a chance to hit the reset button and the renewed urgency should give way to a better Chiefs team than what we’ve seen in recent weeks. At the same time, it is a little worrying that their best win came against a week three Philly team that was shadow of what they are now. Especially when the Colts have beaten several teams that are better than the Chiefs, including the Chiefs themselves.
With K.C., the easy explanation is to say they cooled off as they faced better teams and the last 6-7 weeks is what counts most and not the 9 straight wins before that. That almost seems like an explanation that is too convenient. While there is some of that at play, the Chiefs also cooled down as the state of urgency dropped. When you go 9-0 to begin a season, a team could start letting up a bit, thinking they have a playoff locked up. And as things got a little rocky, passing Denver in the standings after losing to them twice was out-of-reach. Maybe they just sort of resigned themselves to their fate. At their best, there are a lot of things about the Chiefs that are conducive to at least a mini-run in this postseason. Their defense can create turnovers and rush the passer. Offensively, they are efficient with Alex Smith at quarterback and an overlooked gem at running back in Jamaal Charles, who also caught 70 balls in addition to running for 1287 yards. Throw in Dwayne Bowe, Donnie Avery, Dexter McCluster, and others into the mix and it’s a nice group of weapons on both sides of the ball. To summarily dismiss them based on the final stretch run of the season could be a mistake.
Even so, the game between these two teams a few weeks ago was hardly a flattering portrayal of the Chiefs, who went scoreless following an opening-drive touchdown, as the Colts pretty much had their way. This won’t be as easy, but I suspect the Colts can get it done at home and cover the spread.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m taking the Indianapolis Colts minus 2.5 points.
