NFL Football Handicapping Tips: Keeping a Good Perspective
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
The Dangers of Individual Player Analysis
We can fall into a trap of breaking down and analyzing players, offenses, and defenses on an individual basis. As if they are separately-operating entities, which they are not. In a football game, different players, systems, and coaching styles collide to create one situation. And we often fail to consider how all the different things will mesh.
We can't gauge how a team will perform on a given week by listing all its strengths and weaknesses and comparing it to the opponent. These teams don't operate independently from each other. The way they match up is the key--how well and poorly different things will go over in the face of the opponent.
It's not enough to say "they have a good running back" unless you are certain that there is a good chance he will have a good performance in this game against this team at this location on this surface against this defense at this time of the year. You say a team has a good defense? OK, that's good, but are you certain there isn't something particular about the opposing offense that could pose a problem. It's all about the match-ups, how two things will combine to create one situation. And arriving at that conclusion takes more than just an individual appraisal of all the different elements at play.
The Ridiculousness of NFL Betting
Time for some self-effacement. We're basically trying to be fortune tellers in a wildly unpredictable area of life. You have 22 guys running around on a field for a few hours and we're trying to pinpoint almost exactly how it will end. And on top of that, we are trying to outdo professional handicappers who always seem to win over the long run.
It's a little funny how people flock to the window every NFL football season, knowing the odds against them are enormous. Step into any sportsbook and rest assured that over 95% of those people are losers in the long run. Those are daunting odds. Guys wanting to become doctors and lawyers face way better odds than that and the rewards would seem to surpass what a NFL football bettor stands to gain. But still, the lines at the book are longer than ever.
A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. It's very human to overrate our own levels of expertise in certain areas. A person watches a little cable news and suddenly they're the foremost authority on politics. A drug addict gets straight and after a few months of going to church, he's quoting bible verses to you in the Target parking lot. Your aunt Connie comes around when you're manning the grill telling you how you're not cooking the sausages right and she knows diddly-squat about BBQ.
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When it comes to sports, everyone is an expert. It's one of those areas where everyone feels qualified to have an opinion, but who is really qualified to have a worthwhile opinion? It could be you, but chances are that the minds behind the odds you see are higher in the food chain. And understanding our limitations is really key. We should look at ourselves as jackals, going around hunting for any piece of meat we can find. We're not so much trying to go toe-to-toe with the bookie and the keen minds who put up lines on NFL games--we're just looking for spots.
Know Your Limits
You may very well be a highly intelligent person with a gift for making key insights. But handicapping prowess is proven over the course of many years. We might get a big head after a few weeks of success. We might begin fashioning ourselves as betting whizzes. And that's the precise moment where you can count on failing.
As football bettors, we need to know we are not geniuses. We may win a few games, but that could be because we were lucky. Picking a spread correctly is not exactly a titanic achievement. And you might be an insightful guy, but does that mean everything that comes out of your brain is gold? Until you develop a track record that shows years of success, any thoughts of grandeur could very well just be delusions. Bet on NFL football games for FREE by taking advantage of a massive 100% sign-up bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets!