Minnesota Vikings (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. New York Giants (0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS)
Week 7 NFL
Date/Time: Monday, October 21, 2013 at 8:30PM EST
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: MIN+3/NYG -3
Over/Under Total: 46.5
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On Monday, the Minnesota Vikings come to East Rutherford to face the New York Giants. Before the season, those who scheduled this as a Monday Night game were certainly not forecasting these teams would be combining for a 1-10 record. Then again, no one was. Some may have said these weren’t playoff teams, but no one said they would be this bad.
The Giants lost again on Thursday to the Bears, but at least they covered their first spread. Still, it’s a sign something is wrong when they’re almost two-digit dogs to the Bears. But they covered and got a 100-yard rushing performance from Brandon Jacobs. But with 15 picks through 6 games, Eli Manning has been off-target, despite averaging nearly 300 yards per game and the receiving trio of Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Rueben Randle putting up numbers. Stats ring empty in light of an 0-6 mark.
The Vikings haven’t exactly been on-fire. Only two teams have allowed more points than the Vikings, with the “D” giving up 30 or more points in all their games but one, when they gave up 27 to the winless Steelers. Christian Ponder got off to a rough start and then got injured, paving the way for Matt Cassel. The veteran played well against Pittsburgh, before struggling at home against Carolina, losing 35-10 and scoring their only touchdown in the last minute when matters were well decided.
With the signing of Josh Freeman last week, the QB situation is more-muddled than ever. Their best player, Adrian Peterson, is doing his best in light of the unspeakable tragedy, but this offense is off-key. There are some pieces in place offensively and it’s not outside the realm of possibility that they can turn it around. Based on last week, however, it’s gonna be tough.
Update: (10/15) Josh Freeman to start Monday.
The Giants are -16 in the giveaway category and are simply not taking care of the ball. They are last in the league in points allowed with 35 a game. They’re giving up big performances to both opposing running backs and quarterbacks. But their problems go beyond unflattering statistics. A Super Bowl Champion team of just 2 years ago, finding yourself at 0-6 is an especially demoralizing situation.
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An optimist might like New York’s chances, at least more than other bottom-rung teams, in terms of perhaps getting things turned around a bit. They at least have the firepower to turn it around, with a potentially high-flying offense. But that explosive capability has been blowing up in their faces. They opened the season losing to Dallas by only 5. And losing to Chicago on Sunday by only 6 was an okay sign--at least better than the 3 straight beatings they took prior to that.
Last week, it seemed like the bookies were trying to get the Giants a cover after opening the season 0-for-5. They can’t just have a team never cover the spread. But this week, there is no such sentiment, with the Giants actually favored by a field goal at home. In some respects, it’s understandable. The Vikings are suffering, facing a lack of continuity at QB, and have been brutal against the pass--ranked 30th in the NFL. At home and badly needing a win, the Giants should show some urgency if there is any fight left in this dog.
But even if the stars seem to be lining up for a Giants win, how comfortable can you feel taking them and having to give up points? If you have enough nerve to bet on an 0-6 team, you can still lose the bet if they win only win by two. That’s brutal. The opponent, timing, and the simple dynamic of “being due” all favor New York. But they simply are not a reliable commodity at this point. It’s not easy getting behind a team that has plummeted to this position with such a thud.
Despite how far the Giants have fallen and how bad they look, they’re not going to lose every game. At some point, that passing game is going to have some success and they’ll stop giving the other team the ball. Why not at home against a Vikings team that just doesn’t look very good?
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the New York Giants -3.
