Minnesota Vikings (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Tennessee Titans (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
Week 1 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, September 11, 2016 at 1PM EST
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: MIN -1.5/TEN +1.5
Over/Under Total: 41
The Minnesota Vikings come to Nissan Stadium in Nashville to face the Tennessee Titans on the first Sunday of the NFL season. Both teams enter 2016 with some well-placed optimism. Minnesota is coming off a big 11-win season that saw them become NFC North champs under second-year coach Mike Zimmer. They look for more of the same and maybe even more in 2016, but need to overcome some major and late-developing issues at quarterback. Tennessee only won 3 games last season, but a slew of moves, youngsters rounding into form, and some better breaks could see things starting to pay off this season for the Titans.
It's been ages since the Titans fielded anything resembling an offense that elicits fear into anyone. Last season, rookie and former Heisman winner Marcus Mariota showed nice promise in his first season, though injuries cost him 4 games and his highly-mobile style makes him a perennial injury threat. He still was able to produce better play behind center than the Titans have seen perhaps since the days of Steve McNair. The run-game hasn't taken off in recent seasons with guys not really fulfilling their promise and an offensive line that wasn't great in springing a ground-game.
Tennessee looks to see a significant upgrade across both of those areas. They drafted Alabama back Derrick Henry, while signing 2014 rushing champion DeMarco Murray. Is there a chance that Henry isn't ready for prime-time and that Murray is a spent force? Sure, but they would be unlucky if neither panned out. A really good tackle was added in the draft with 8th pick Jack Conklin, with the addition of Ben Jones from Houston. Better play from youngsters up-front with Taylor Lewan and Jeremiah Poutasi will also help. There's a lot of blue-chippers up-front and this is the year for it to start paying off.
With Tennessee defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau in tow, the Titans defense rose to 12th overall and that's big progress from the form they had shown in the previous handful of seasons. Jurrell Woods is the gem of the front and might be joined by rookie Austin Johnson. DaQuan Jones will be at the end. A lot of things changed in the back-seven last season and maybe it will pay off this season. Brian Orakpo did well in his first season in Nashville and Derrick Morgan will be a factor if healthy. Kevin Dodd should provide some pass-rush from the outside. Veteran Wesley Woodyard and blossoming Avery Williamson will be capable on the inside—filling out a deep linebacker crew. Jason McCourty returns from an injury-plagued 2015 and will start at one corner, with Brice McCain opposite him. Safeties Da'Norris Searcy and Rashad Johnson will be tested at safety.
With Tennessee, it's good to see them aggressively try to extract themselves from the rut they've been in with a 5-27 run in their last two seasons. At the same time, you can't always patch things together as easily as you would think in the NFL. There's things like chemistry and forming a true team that prevents a lot of teams in Tennessee's position from just throwing good-looking ingredients into the stew and hoping it tastes good at the end. In other words, look for some of these moves to resonate positively, but to think they're all going to go over big could be a miscalculation.
Minnesota looks to have locked onto a formula for success under head coach Mike Zimmer. But losing Teddy Bridgewater was a major blow, softened to some extent with the trade for Sam Bradford. They could be one of those teams that'll sneak up on you. On paper, they're easy to overlook. After all, it's basically Adrian Peterson and a bunch of other guys. They have a new QB that is not ready to play with his new team, an anonymous cast of receivers, the 29th-ranked offense from '15, and a mid-pack defense. So how'd they win 11 games and the division? Those are the teams you need to watch out for. What are they good at? Winning.
One observation that paints the Vikes in a less-flattering light was the quality of their wins last season. It wasn't until week 17 where they were able to score a win over a good team, when they beat Green Bay, 20-13, avenging a 30-13 loss earlier in the season. All teams they beat were either bad or in poor form. The schedule gets a lot tougher this season and we'll see if the Vikes can keep pace.
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Sam Bradford is much maligned, but has shown enough good form that you can't write him off. Staying healthy has been an issue, but when he's healthy and allowed to develop some continuity with his offense, he can be quite effective. In 14 starts last season, he was at 65% completions with 3725 yards. His 19/14 touchdown-to-interception rate wasn't good, but he got better late in the year. Is it possible that he can bring more out of this offense? Or will Minnesota miss QB Teddy Bridgewater's steely and poker-faced presence behind center? For game one, at least, it will be Shaun Hill behind center, as he got the nod for game one. He will rely on second-year receiver Stefon Diggs, who was impressive as a rookie last season. Tight end Kyle Rudolph caught 49 balls last season, with Jarius Wright a nice complimentary piece. The real hope lies with the arrival of first-rounder WR Laquon Treadwell, who could give this offense a real weapon. Some help up-front could also help things come together. They added free agent Alex Boone at guard, while tackle Phil Loadholt and center John Sullivan return from injury. This part of the team should be better under typically-effective new line coach Tony Sparano.
Zimmer's handiwork on defense has paid off and there's still work to do. They've risen from laughingstock status to a level of respectability since Zimmer's arrival and look for that trajectory to continue upward. The line is where they've come the furthest, clogging up the run a lot better inside with Linval Joseph and Sharrif Floyd, while getting good play at the ends with Everson Griffen and Brian Robison. A UCLA youth movement in the middle in the form of Eric Kendricks with Anthony Barr have made the Minnesota middle far more-viable. Chad Greenway is still back there too. And the secondary keeps getting better, with Terence Newman and Xavier Rhodes on the corners with Andrew Sendejo and Harrison Smith at the safety positions. But look for recent high draft choices Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander to get time, as well.
The Vikes move into a new stadium this season. With added pieces, there is understandable enthusiasm and those who think their success is a mirage better think again. Going with Hill to begin the season might result in the team starting slowly, putting more onus on the "D." The defense should continue to improve, as talented youngsters develop into stars or at least quality starters. If the draft pick of Treadwell works out and the line enjoys the upgrade that some project, the Vikings could be really tough. Tennessee is on the way up, but all those changes make them perhaps a little less-prepared to hit the ground running in 2016. Without being thrilled at the late QB change, I see Minnesota thriving in this particular role against teams that aren't quite "together" yet. I'll take the Vikes.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Minnesota Vikings minus 1.5 points.
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