NFL Futures Bets: Most Receiving Yards in 2017
By Loot, NFL Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
One of our favorite bets is betting on who will lead the NFL in receiving yards. It allows us to use our insight to capitalize and possibly get a big score. Last season's receiving yards leader, TY Hilton, went off at big odds and perhaps this season, we can locate another contender at a big price. As one can see by looking at the odds to lead the NFL in receiving yards, the board is littered with legit contenders, many of whom have a realistic shot.
There is a lot to take into consideration when fashioning such a bet. We need to consider the player's role on the team and how much action he will see. It can be hard when a player is part of a team with a lot of viable targets. You ideally want the guy you pick to be the clear go-to guy on the team. Take a look at any offseason moves that maybe put a different light on that player's role. Ponder the style of offense of the team. Like if you see a bad team, don't rule out a player from that squad. If anything, receivers can put up big numbers when their team is playing from behind a lot.
Also note a player's overall reliability. Certain players are just more-dependable, as they seem to steer clear of things like injury or suspensions. It doesn't have to be a major injury to throw your choice sideways. A player misses a game or two and other players will sail by him on the receiving leaders chart. Consistency is another factor. This isn't a category where a player can have a large handful of dud games and still hope to lead the league.
Think about what it takes to lead the NFL in receiving yardage. Last season was a down season in terms of yardage with Hilton racking up 1448 for the league lead. But Jones led the previous season with a robust total of 1871, while Brown had 1698 the season before that. It's a little curious to see league-leaders with stats comparable to the best receivers of 30 years ago, especially as the game has become more-aerial. It speaks to the diversity of offenses and better defensive planning in today's NFL.
Among the top contenders are guys who have shown they can thrive in this category. There has been a different leader in this category for five years straight, with Antonio Brown winning it in 2014 and Julio Jones in 2015. Last season's receiving yards leader TY Hilton is getting better than 10-to-1 odds. So we see there's some different ways to approach this. Let's take a look at the odds to lead the league in receiving yards, followed by some of our best choices, separated by favorites, middle-of-the-road picks, and some longshots, as well.
Betting Odds to Lead the NFL in Receiving Yards in 2017
Antonio Brown +425
Julio Jones +450
Odell Beckham +800
T.Y. Hilton +1100
A.J. Green +1500
Mike Evans +1600
Michael Thomas +2100
Amari Cooper +2500
Jordy Nelson +2600
Brandin Cooks +2900
DeAndre Hopkins +3300
Dez Bryant +3300
Demaryius Thomas +4000
Golden Tate +4000
Doug Baldwin +4500
Allen Robinson +5000
Emmanuel Sanders +5000
Travis Kelce +5000
Alshon Jeffery +6000
Terrelle Pryor +6000
Jarvis Landry +6600
Sammy Watkins +6600
Greg Olsen +8500
Michael Crabtree +8500
Davante Adams +10000
Julian Edelman +10000
Kelvin Benjamin +10000
Larry Fitzgerald +10000
Martavis Bryant +10000
Rob Gronkowski +10000
Stefon Diggs +10000
Willie Snead +10000
DeSean Jackson +12500
Keenan Allen +12500
DeVante Parker +15000
Jamison Crowder +15000
John Brown +15000
Pierre Garcon +15000
Quincy Enunwa +15000
Adam Thielen +20000
Brandon Marshall +20000
Donte Moncrief +20000
Eric Decker +20000
Jimmy Graham +20000
Jordan Matthews +20000
Jordan Reed +20000
Kenny Britt +20000
Marvin Jones +20000
Mike Wallace +20000
Randall Cobb +20000
Rishard Matthews +20000
Tyreek Hill +20000
Cameron Meredith +25000
Corey Coleman +25000
Kyle Rudolph +25000
Tyler Eifert +25000
Tyrell Williams +25000
Zach Ertz +25000
Breshad Perriman +30000
Cole Beasley +30000
Delanie Walker +30000
Robby Anderson +30000
Ted Ginn +30000
Marqise Lee +40000
Martellus Bennett +40000
Mohamed Sanu +40000
Sterling Shepard +40000
Hunter Henry +50000
Jack Doyle +50000
Kenny Stills +50000
Our Best Favorite Picks:
Antonio Brown (+425): For four straight seasons, he has found his way into the top five on receiving yards leaders. In that time span, he has posted a ridiculous 6315 receiving yards. Still not yet 30, Brown should be expected to again be a factor. Last season's total of 1284 was due to him being momentarily slowed with an injury. Brown is a definite threat.
Julio Jones (+450): Jones has become a constant threat atop the receiving yards lists, finishing second last season, following a league-leading performance the previous year. There appears to be no abundant reason to suspect he won't once again factor heavily into this category in 2017.
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Our Best Middle-of-the-Road Picks:
Mike Evans (+1600): With 3578 yards in his first three seasons in the league, Evans is in his prime on a team that is on the rise. There could be another gear available. His totals keep rising and if they do so again, he could be right in the thick of this discussion. Last season, he was 4th in this category, only 127 yards off the league-lead. Evans is a definite contender.
Jordy Nelson (+2600): Granted, he is getting a little long in the tooth and his best play may no longer lie ahead of him. Still, a healthier Nelson could have enough juice to contend. Last season, he caught 14 TDs with 1257 yards and that was with some games where he was almost invisible or resting a lot. Not bad value on a top receiver.
Our Best Longshots:
Keenan Allen (+12500): Injuries have threatened to derail one of the more-impressive receiving talents in the game. But if he can somehow put together a full season, he has actually shown the ability to put up the kind of numbers needed to be a top receiver. When Allen and Rivers get clicking, they are exceedingly hard to stop and that kind of talent is hard to ignore at a huge price.
Tyrell Williams (+25000): Yes, we realize we have selected a second Chargers' receiver as a long-shot selection, sort of boxing ourselves into a corner. Still at 250-to-1, it's hard to not consider a guy who went over 1000 yards in his first real season of play, following a slew of injuries to the Chargers' pass-catching corps in 2016. A more-comfortable Williams could be better this season if given the chance. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and make NFL futures bets by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!
