New England Patriots (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Arizona Cardinals (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
Week 1 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday Night Football, September 11, 2016 at 8:30PM EST
Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
TV: NBC
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: NE +6/ARI -6
Over/Under Total: 48
The New England Patriots meet the Arizona Cardinals in a big Sunday Night Football opener to kick off the 2016 regular season. Both teams are leading contenders in their respective conferences, having both made it to the title games last season, falling just short of the Super Bowl. The Pats have what on paper looks like as good a team as they've had recently, but four games without Tom Brady throws their early-season into doubt. Arizona, meanwhile, looks to start the season well. They truly look to be one of the strongest teams in the league.
Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will take over this Patriots' offense for the time being. With just 31 throws in his two seasons under Brady's mentorship, it's hard to tell what the former Eastern Illinois star will look like in real action for a prolonged stretch. Maybe you defer to the coaching staff and the power of the Belichick system, which is why we've seen some great Patriots teams over the years with rosters that don't really jump off the paper. Dion Lewis is hurt and that again leaves their run-game with some issues, with LeGarrette Blount, James White, and Brandon Bolden carrying the load. Last season's 3.7 average per rush is a number they'd like to rise in 2016.
Garoppolo will have a bevy of aerial weapons with which to work, though he will likely not be able to deliver the rock with the same acumen as Brady. Still, with guys like Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, he has two of the best in the biz, though keeping both healthy seems like a challenge. Danny Amendola caught 65 balls last season, though might not be ready to hit the field as he recovers from surgery. James White is effective out of the backfield catching balls. Adding Marcellus Bennett again gives the Pats a big 1-2 tight end punch. Free agent signing Nate Washington adds an interesting dimension, as does Georgia rookie Malcolm Mitchell (doubtful).
Garoppolo and the run-game would surely benefit from a little better play up-front. Securing Jonathan Cooper from the team they're playing in week one was a big help to the inside of the line. All other pieces have returned and their old line coach is back with the idea to get this unit back to top form. The problem is that Tre Jackson, Sebastian Vollmer, and Shaq Mason are all banged up to start the season. You'd ideally want to see a new presence behind center with the line and run-game at close to full-power.
New England's defense made a lot of gains last season, once again forging a top-ten unit. Up-front, they very well could have the best group in the conference if not the whole NFL. They added Chris Long who might have some life left. Last year's first-round pick DT Malcom Brown should continue to blossom, with Jabaal Sheard (questionable) and Rob Ninkovich (out) adding a nice pass rush element from the outside. The middle loses a real player in Chandler Jones, who will be on the other side of the sidelines with Arizona. Still, with Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower, it remains a strong group and will be even more so if free agent Shea McClellin can start delivering on his considerable promise. The secondary of CB Malcolm Butler, CB Ryan Logan, and safeties Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung were a mid-pack group last season, 15th in pass-defense. Look for help from rookie Cyrus Jones with a lot of depth to help make that part of the team better.
The Cardinals are in good hands with QB Carson Palmer, who stayed healthy last season and is now on a run of 26 wins in his last 31 starts with Arizona. This offense has become stocked, especially through the air. Larry Fitzgerald is still one of the best clutch receivers in the game, with Michael Floyd and John Brown adding a nice depth. The three went for over 3000 yards last season. They developed a nice versatile weapon in David Johnson, who had 13 touchdowns and developed into a viable RB option with Chris Johnson hurt. The pair should make for a good combo coming out of the backfield. This offense is intact and healthy for the most part. The only concern is up-front, where tackle Bobby Massie and guard Jonathan Cooper need to be replaced. But they should be strong, with LT Jared Veldheer, G Mike Iupati, free agent guard Evan Mathis, and 2015 first-rounder DJ Humphries. One issue for this game is that Palmer's two top weapons, Fitzgerald and Brown, are both listed as questionable for week one.
The 2016 Arizona defense might top the 5th-ranked unit from last season. Optimism comes from the addition of pass-rusher Chandler Jones and first-round pick Robert Nkemdiche. Corey Peters is back from an injury, with Calais Campbell coming off a nice season. Look for their sack total of 36 sacks from 2015 to increase. The middle is loaded with S/LB hybrid Deone Buchanon, along with Kevin Minter, Markus Golden, and Kareem Martin. It's a productive group. The secondary has star-power with S Tyrann Mathieu and CB Patrick Peterson. Both should be in fine form this season, with DJ Swearinger and Tony Jefferson duking it out at strong safety. Free agent Tyvon Branch and Justin Bethel will go opposite Peterson. They are improved and their key pieces are healthy. This "D" could become a really formidable unit this season.
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For the Pats, it's not so much about their long-term prognosis, which seems assured to some extent. It's what we should expect from them in these 4 games. Will they camouflage the loss of Brady well and just keep right on cruising for a 4-game window? Are we looking at 2-2? Will they just not have near the same bite offensively and be rendered a shadow of themselves? Let's not forget they were close to the making the Super Bowl and a lot of pieces remain. It's just whether the offense can work it out in Brady's absence.
New England faces three easier games after this, but this doesn't seem like a good spot to be rolling at less-than full power. They'd be up against it with Brady actually in there. With him out, I see them struggling to keep pace with an Arizona offense that could blossom even more this season. And the Cardinals' defense won't be tested to the same extent if Brady was in there. I see the Cardinals establishing a little late separation and covering the spread at home in week one.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Arizona Cardinals minus 6 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and bet the Pats-Cardinals game in your own home by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!
