New England Patriots (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) vs. Carolina Panthers (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS)
Week 11 NFL
Date/Time: Monday Night Football, November 18, 2013 at 8:30PM EST
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: NE +1/CAR -1
Over/Under Total: 46
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On Monday Night Football, the New England Patriots make the trip south to Charlotte to face the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers look to add to what was a signature franchise-building win at San Francisco last week that sent them to 6-3. New England, at 7-2, is gunning for their third straight win and are coming off a bye-week.
Carolina had beaten some bad teams, but in beating the 49ers on the road, they showed that this defense might be for real. Defense always shows up and it certainly did on Sunday, as they kept a streaking Niners team out of the end zone. They sacked Kaepernick 6 times and had the San Fran offense flummoxed all afternoon. Sometimes, stats don’t tell the story, but here they speak volumes. The Carolina “D” is ranked 4th against the pass, 2nd against the run, and 2nd in points allowed per game. It’s time we start wrapping our heads around the fact that this “D” is for real.
In their last game, the Patriots broke open a close game and thumped Pittsburgh 55-31. Then they went into the bye week, where you have to almost assume that Belichick and staff came up with something to throw at Carolina that they might not be expecting or prepared to see. We can’t discount the game-planning acumen of Belichick. Still, it’s a bit daunting in the match-up department. New England’s “D” has been porous against the run, which is the Panthers bread-and-butter. The Pats are better defending the pass, but the Panthers haven’t been relying on that to get to 6-3.
The Panthers’ run game is rounding into shape. Jonathan Stewart is getting back into the flow, giving them their nice 1-2 punch with DeAngelo Williams leading the way. Giving the running game extra flair is the fine running work of QB Cam Newton and short-yardage maven Mike Tolbert. It’s a diverse and tricky run-attack and the Patriots “D” on the road in front of fans who haven’t had much to cheer in recent years is going to really be put to the test.
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It says a lot about the Panthers that they are playing this well with an offense that isn’t really a top unit. What the Carolina offense does manage to accomplish is that they keep their defense well-rested. And they’re clutch, despite point totals that can be on the low-side week-to-week. When they need to produce, they generally do. Still, the jury hasn’t returned a verdict on whether Carolina can make this all fly consistently against better teams. Prior to defeating the 49ers last week, Carolina had not beaten a team that is anywhere near the .500 mark. They won a defensive 10-9 slog-feat against the Niners last week, but let’s see how they fare against a good team whose offense has more of an explosive capability.
The home aspect is one that should favor Carolina. Again, it’s been slim pickings in Charlotte in recent years. Now they come home at an impressive 6-3 and there should be some added enthusiasm. But the Patriots are coming off a bye week--a position that has been used well typically by the Pats and Belichick. And they really needed it, facing this defense and to get some guys back healthy. Their being 7-2 with the injury bug on a biting frenzy is awfully impressive. Maybe they get Talib and Vereen back this week and other players who have been out are back in, ready to give the Patriots a second-half boost.
A lot of different contributors are allowing the Patriots’ offense to once again take shape. RB Stevan Ridley has been producing well and had his first 100-yard game of 2013 against Pittsburgh. WR Danny Amendola has returned from injury and is really putting it together. There are just a lot of weapons on this team. With returning TE Rob Gronkowski starting to warm up, it should continue to get better.
A lot of it comes down to Carolina and whether they’re for real or if this recent success is just one of those short-lived spurts you see in the league from time to time. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. While not true-blue contenders, the Panthers are good this year. This doesn’t have the feel of a team that is going to go from 6-3 to 7-9. This game is a toughie, where it’s easy to see either team winning. On MNF, the Patriots are in a far more familiar spot. Perhaps this will develop into a bit more of a score-fest than what Carolina is comfortable with, just enough to allow the Pats to escape Charlotte with a hard-earned win.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m taking the New England Patriots plus a point.
