New Orleans Saints (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Rams (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS)
Week 12 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, November 26, 2017 at 4:25PM EST
Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California
TV: CBS
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: NO +2.5/LAR -2.5
Over/Under Total: 53.5
The New Orleans Saints come into the LA Coliseum on Sunday to take on the Los Angeles Rams in a high-stakes NFC matchup in week 12. The Saints moved their record to 8-2 on Sunday, scoring their 8th straight win in a dramatic overtime win over the Redskins. Down by 15 with less than 3 minutes left, the Saints furiously came back to pull victory from the jaws of defeat. They now face a tough road spot against what should be an irritated 7-3 Rams team that saw their 4-game win streak end on Sunday in a bad 24-7 road loss to the Vikings. As we've seen this season with some dramatic team turnarounds, the Rams want to avoid a similar fate and will be looking to put a stop to the bleeding this week.
The Saints 0-2 start to the season and how bad they looked in getting there is all but a distant memory. Sunday wasn't their best effort overall. The offense was flat until late in the game, while the defense allowed more than it had all season. But they also showed it's never over with the Saints, as they put forth a furious and clutch comeback, showing they aren't just frontrunners. A lot of their recent wins have been lopsided one-sided affairs. They illustrated they can still thrive in the face of adversity and the comeback on Sunday was ruthless. The defense stepped up, with Drew Brees moving the ball with alacrity, getting a big boost from his ample set of playmakers on offense. And in overtime, they still had enough in the tank, with big back Mark Ingram mauling his way deep into Washington territory to set up the winning Wil Lutz kick.
In the comeback bid on Sunday, Brees was masterful, going 11-for-11 on the final two drives with a huge 164 yards. He ended up with 385 yards on the day with two TD throws on 29-for-41 passing. Huge on the day was Mark Ingram, whose runs of 21 and 30 yards on the last OT possession set up the winning FG. He had 134 yards on just 11 carries, along with a TD score. The New Orleans run-game has really manifested this season with the good play of Ingram and the addition of rookie Alvin Kamara, who added some useful runs on Sunday. Through the air, they got several big performances, with TE Coby Fleener and WR Michael Thomas each going for 91 yards receiving. Ted Ginn, Jr. went for 87 yards, while TE Josh Hill and Kamara hauled in TD receptions. This offense has been able to overcome injuries up-front to form a tip-top offense that can do a little bit of everything.
The Saints defense had been playing very well, allowing a combined 49 points in their last 4 games. So the 31 they allowed to Washington was a setback. And they are banged up, as they were playing without S Kenny Vaccaro and LB AJ Klein. And early in the game, they lost their best corner in rookie Marshon Lattimore. DE Alex Okafor also had to leave the game. This would be an area of concern, as the Saints defense has been the most-obvious roadblock to success over the last several seasons for the Saints. And to make a big run this season, they will need to retain the level of respectability they had created in the last few months. Injuries to a large handful of key starters could lead to problems, so it's something to watch moving forward.
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There is certainly no shame in losing to the Vikings at home. The margin of defeat and how the Rams just generally looked on Sunday, however, is something they want to put an end to this week at home. After putting up 144 points in their 4-game win streak, they saw their offense stall out fairly dramatically on Sunday. Things didn't get much better on the other side of the ball, as the Vikings put up nearly 300 yards of offense on the Rams' defense in the second half. Some injuries on that side of the ball are caused for concern, as they lost nickel corner Nickell Robey-Coleman and CB Tayon Webster. Their replacements didn't fare well and we'll see how that pair looks this week getting ready for this game.
The Rams entered the past week as the league's highest-scoring offense, but they saw their formula for success temporarily stall out. Jared Goff was 23-for-37 for 235 yards with no picks, but the aerial attack didn't make much of an impact. Todd Gurley got in the end zone in the first quarter to give the Rams a promising 7-0 lead. The offense then was unable to hit the scoreboard for the remainder of the game. Gurley ended up with just 37 yards on the day. Robert Woods was again the team's leading receiver with 81 yards, but left the game with a hurt shoulder. Cooper Kupp had a good game and has become an interesting option in his rookie season. Sammy Watkins caught 3 balls, but after strong start to the season, he has strangely only caught 11 passes in the last seven games.
The LA Rams defense did not enjoy a vintage showing on Sunday. They kept it to a 7-7 tie in the first half, before Minnesota started packing on the yardage in the second half, pulling away for the win. The aforementioned injuries in the secondary were a culprit. So were penalties and an utter lack of a pass-rush. They didn't get any turnovers. And with the secondary in a bit of disarray, they needed other areas of the "D" to step up and the front was not really good, with Aaron Donald, Michael Brockers, and others not at their best against a top Minnesota offensive line. They look for better this week at home.
This is a tricky spot for the Saints. If they were to lose, this seems as likely a spot as any. The Rams will be pushing hard for the win and the Saints are coming into a long road trip after a draining overtime win where they had to push it into their highest gear to come out ahead. Then again, anyone who has been trying to time the Saints letdown has mostly come away empty-handed this season. I see them covering the spread on Sunday.
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