New Orleans Saints (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS)
Week 6 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, October 13, 2013 at 4:25PM EST
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: NO +2/NE -2
Over/Under Total: 49.5
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On Sunday, the New Orleans Saints come into Foxborough to face the New England Patriots. The Saints have gotten off to great start, going 5-0 and covering 4 out of 5 spreads. New England lost last week to Cincinnati, but a 4-1 start is not so shabby in light of the many personnel issues they’ve had to overcome.
The Patriots’ Sunday loss to the Bengals, 13-6, saw Tom Brady’s 52-game touchdown streak come to an end. Until Sunday, the Pats had been keeping it together well, despite a lot of issues. Their receiving corps were tattered before the season even began. And even the new guys starting getting injured, with their best producers, Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola missing a lot of time with injuries. Even DT Vince Wilfork went down for the year. But there is hope, despite the anemic performance against Cincinnati. Amendola is back. Tight end extraordinaire Rob Gronkowski is closer than ever to returning. And RB LeGarrette Blount is making the most out of the touches he’s getting in Vereen’s absence.
New England’s defense has improved to make up for the loss of punch in the offense. Despite being 14th in pass defense and 23rd in run “D,” they are 2nd in the league in points allowed. This season, it has been a clutch unit that gets timely stops. Against the Saints, they will need all the help they can get, with the Saints carrying an explosive element into town on Sunday.
Strangely, the story with the Saints is their defense. Last year, they set a record for the most total yardage allowed and so far this year, they are one of the best units in the conference, ranked 4th in the NFL in total points allowed. New coordinator Rob Ryan has whipped this unit into shape. They are more aggressive and are showing they have the personnel to bring Ryan’s vision to life. And having Sean Payton back on the sideline has reinvigorated the entire team. They’re back in a groove.
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Saints’ QB Drew Brees is at nearly 70% completions and is making good use of a deep receiving crew. They have 4 guys with at least 23 catches and TE Jimmy Graham is leading the NFL in receiving yardage with 593. Again, the story is the “D.” Defensive end Cameron Jordan has thrived in the new 3-4 package. The secondary, which was atrocious last year, has found their footing. They have adjusted to the new scheme well. It was thought before the season that if the Saints could merely upgrade their “D” from awful to mediocre, they would be in good shape. They’ve done better than that. Even at 5-0, it seems the offense has not quite taken flight. If that part of the Saints’ game takes off, this is a team to watch. They already are.
With the Saints, you figure they’re at their best at turf in a dome and while that’s true, they haven’t been too bad on grass this year playing outside. They won at Tampa in an afternoon game in week two. Then last Sunday, they went into Chicago, winning the game and covering the spread. Facing their third such game in 6 weeks, will they hit a wall against a New England team that might be a little irritated with a star QB who will be looking to make up for last week? The Saints defense has been solid, but part of that might be that they’ve been facing the right teams. New England might be a different proposition, as opposed to the offenses of a flat Atlanta, Tampa, and Arizona.
With New England such a small favorite, it’s as if the oddsmakers are saying the Saints are slightly better, with 3 points going to the home team automatically. That may be true, but the situation needs to be taken into consideration. With every other team in the NFC South flopping, this is not what you would call a must-win situation for the Saints. And despite their ability to play well out of their element so far this season, they are still playing out of conference on the road in an atmosphere for which they are unaccustomed.
If New England’s defense had floundered on Sunday, that would be one thing. But they’ve been pretty stout, giving up 13 total points in their two home games this season. In three of their five games this year, they have given up 13 or less points. The Saints will probably be able to top that number. Early money seems to have driven the number on New England up, meaning that “smart money” might be liking the Pats this week. That might not be such bad move, unless that line starts creeping toward the field goal mark.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the New England Patriots minus 2 points.
