New York Giants (0-5 SU, 0-5 ATS) vs. Chicago Bears (3-2 SU, 1-3-1 ATS)
Week 6 NFL
Date/Time: Thursday, October 10, 2013 at 8:25PM EST
Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
TV: NFL Network
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: NYG +10/CHI -10
Over/Under Total: 45
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On Thursday night, the New York Giants visit Soldier Field to face the Chicago Bears. After a 3-0 start, the Bears are looking to get back on the right track after a pair of consecutive defeats. Still, they’re in a lot better shape than a New York Giants squad that shockingly sits at 0-5. Giants fans and those unfortunate enough to have bet on them this season can attest to their ineptitude. They have lost every game and are 0-5 ATS.
Sometimes, with teams like the Giants, it’s like a roulette wheel where one color has landed a bunch of times and you’re tempted to pick the opposite color being that it is “due.” That’s actually not a totally invalid strategy with NFL betting. At the end of the season, when we look at teams’ records against-the-spread, we see a range of 10-6 to maybe 6-10, with the rare exception. In other words, teams’ ATS records are usually a lot more tightly-clustered than their actual W-L records. The Giants are going to cover the spread at some point, right?
It can be tough on a team like the Giants. Super Bowl champions just a few years ago and considered a division favorite, this situation can be disheartening. Compare them to a team like Jacksonville, who is also 0-5. The Jaguars have long been settled in the role of a losing team, whereas the Giants have arrived in that position with a thud. Maybe you want to give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they’ll find something. Or maybe a sense of urgency will manifest. But that’s something a lot of us have been saying for the past few weeks and it hasn’t happened yet. Not every team in this league can simply will themselves to succeed.
The Giants still have an aerial attack that can do damage, if some other areas can suddenly get it together. They are dead last in run offense and points allowed. They are last in the league in turnovers, with Manning already having thrown 12 picks. Last Sunday spoke volumes, with a 15-point home loss to the Eagles, a team that sputtered into East Rutherford with 3 straight losses. After losing their last two games by a combined score of 69-7, they proceed to stink it up at home to fall to 0-5. Their defense was a joke and they put up a lousy 21 points against an Eagles defense that had seemed very vulnerable in the past several weeks.
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Chicago has their own problems, but now find themselves in a spot where they can go to 4-2 and take a deep breath. Losing at Detroit 40-32 was one thing, but letting the Saints beat them up at home was a little disappointing. The Saints are good this year, but they normally don’t thrive like they did on Sunday outside and on grass against a good team. Again, look for the Bears to be eager to be 4-2 and not go to 3-3, which would make the great start seem like it was just a tease.
Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler was good in their 3-0 start, before faltering with 3 picks against Detroit. In the loss to the Saints, he wasn’t bad, throwing for 358 yards and a pair of touchdowns with no picks. He’s been good and is taking a step forward in his contract year. RB Matt Forte is getting rolling and the pass game is deep, with Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, TE Martellus Bennett, and Forte. It made the 18-point output on Sunday all the more disappointing. The Bears, as they were on Sunday, have been a bit leaky in their pass “D.” That could set up, theoretically, for a big game for Manning. But the teams that are able to beat the Bears with the pass have been better-balanced. The Giants’ run-game has been laughable.
New York doesn’t need their run-game to be outstanding for this offense to thrive, but they need something in that department to open up the pass and they simply aren’t getting it. They’re not built, coaching-wise or with their personnel, to be a pass-happy team that is able to make it work without any sign of a run game. They need to find something. And quick.
This spread is about as big as it can be without the bookie practically imploring you to take the Giants. These numbers are going to keep getting more and more out-of-whack until the Giants cover a spread. Be that as it may, the number is still not entirely juicy. The Bears figure to be good and irritated at home looking to avoid going 3-3 after a 3-0 start. Their urgency will override any letdown that comes with facing an 0-5 team. But even if that’s true, that doesn’t mean New York won’t cover the spread.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting the UNDER 45 here.
