New York Jets (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Week 5 MNF
Date/Time: Monday, October 7, 2013 at 8:40PM EST
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: NYJ +10/ATL -10
Over/Under Total: 43
On Monday Night Football, the New York Jets come to the Georgia Dome to face the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have been surprisingly bad, going 1-3--not a good start for a team that has averaged 12 wins a year for the past 3 seasons. The Jets are a respectable 2-2 and have covered 3 out of 4 spreads.
Despite the good start for a team that was supposed to be awful, the Jets appear to be regressing a bit. Geno Smith began efficiently enough, but isn’t really coming around well. Fair enough--he’s a rookie. But with 8 interceptions and 3 fumbles, he’s not taking care of the ball. They went into Tennessee on Sunday and proceeded to get their butts throughly whipped in a discouraging display of ineptitude on both sides of the ball. It’s like they began the season eager to show they are not the joke everyone said they were and now, they are actually settling into that role. Then again, maybe that’s taking too hard of a stance. Prior to the Titans game, they had covered three straight spreads and won 2 of 3, with their only loss a narrow 3-point defeat to New England on the road. Certainly, a team like this is going to have some letdowns, but they had generally been over-performing prior to Sunday, so who knows? It just doesn’t look very promising at the moment.
Atlanta was a massive disappointment on Sunday night. “Smart” money was apparently all over the Falcons to even their record at 2-2 against an out-of-their-element Patriots team that seemed due for a bad game. And they lose 30-23 as 3-point favorites in a game that wasn’t even as close as the score indicates. Now they sit at 1-3 and are facing at least a mini-crisis.
In their 3 losses, the Falcons lost to teams that are now a combined 11-1, with defeats coming to the Saints, Dolphins, and Patriots. A slow start to the season is going to resonate more against good teams. They are not facing a good team this week, so maybe this is a prime get-well spot for the Falcons. The talent that has allowed them to go 36-12 the past 3 years is still there. The defense is struggling, however. The “D” has 4 turnovers all season, the pass rush is inconsistent and the secondary is giving up big performances, with Drew Brees, Sam Bradford, Ryan Tannehill, and Tom Brady all having big games against this “D.”
It’s just not working for Atlanta. They need the “D” to be stouter. While they have a lot of offensive firepower, it’s not in their character to win shootouts. Steven Jackson is out and while Jacquizz Rogers is a good player, he’s not the kind of workhorse back you can rely on to move the chains and control the game for 4 quarters. In the past few years, there has been a steady decline in their run game, which has accounted for a gradual lessening of their overall form. QB Matt Ryan may have thrown for 421 yards on Sunday and has a great receiving crew, but they still lost the game and were unable to mount the production when it was needed, with some of that yardage coming after the game was already out-of-reach.
Still, we can’t totally lose sight of the fact that Atlanta was one play from going to the Super Bowl last season. The 1-3 start is alarming, as was their inability to get it together last week for the Patriots when facing what seemed to be an urgent situation. They’re already getting to the point where they can’t suffer too many setbacks or they forget about the playoffs, especially with New Orleans at 4-0. There’s a lot of football left. They need to start winning and this is as good a spot as any.
The Jets’ defense looked awful against Tennessee, even with starting QB Jake Locker going down with an injury. This is Smith’s first back-to-back run of road games and the growing pains should continue in Atlanta. You have to figure the Falcons are going to be irritated. They are facing perhaps their most urgent regular season game in several years. And it’s against the Jets. Sometimes teams that look bad continue to look bad. Not every team with a recent positive history is able to bounce back once hitting the skids. It’s part of the turnover in this league and maybe Atlanta’s window has closed. But before that becomes clearly-established, they should be able to dish out a moderate beating on a Jets team that seems out of sorts.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Atlanta Falcons minus 10 points.
