New York Jets (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS)
Week 3 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, September 25, 2016 at 4:25PM EST
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: CBS
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: NYJ +3.5/KC -3.5
Over/Under Total: 43
The New York Jets come to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs in a battle of AFC contenders. The Jets were able to atone from a tough one-point loss to the Bengals in week one by beating the Buffalo Bills on the road in week two, 37-31. The offense looked powerful, while the defense got exploited some, but was still able to help the team leave Buffalo with a win. Now they come into Arrowhead rested after the Thursday game last week, as they try to notch a win that would really confirm their contender status. It won't be easy on the road against a Chiefs team that will be looking to avoid back-to-back losses after they saw their recent dominance of the Texans end on Sunday with a 19-12 loss.
The Jets looked good on Thursday Night Football. There were some hiccups, but everything worked out in the end and that's what counts against a team that had beaten them five times in a row. The most-painful of those defeats came in week 17 of last season, when the Jets needed to beat the Bills to make the playoffs and were beaten by their AFC East rivals. Jets' quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was terrible in that game and eager to make up for it in week 2. He certainly did that on 24-for-34 passing with 374 yards through the air. Just before the end of the half, the Jets took a commanding 20-7 lead. Three straight Bills drives suddenly had them down, 24-20, in the third quarter. The offense retook command of the game with three straight scoring drives that took the Bills out of the game.
The Jets' offense looked excellent after a lukewarm week one performance, which was understandable coming against the Cincinnati "D." It took a last-minute drive and FG for the Bengals to salvage a win. The Jets look to have developed a pretty potent aerial attack, led by Fitzpatrick, who broke a Jets record with 31 touchdowns last season. It might even be better with more cast members taking a lead. Brandon Marshall is still a terrific number-one receiver, with Eric Decker as good a number-two as you could ask for. It now looks like WR Quincy Enunwa has joined the fold as a key contributor. After 8 catches against Cincy, Enunwa was 8 yards from giving the Jets three 100-yard receivers against the Bills. Ohio State rookie receiver Jalin Marshall also got into the mix with 45 yards receiving.
On Thursday, we also saw the Jets offense control the line of scrimmage to a large extent. The Bills were unable to fashion much in the way of a consistent pass-rush, with the O-line doing a good job. And they saw their key offseason acquisition Matt Forte produce for a second straight week. Forte ran for 100 yards on the ground and scored three touchdowns. So with a burgeoning receiver crew and a true running back who can do a little of everything, it's fair to say the Jets' offense is showing as much potential and upside as it has in years.
Defensively, there were some issues. A lot of them are in an area they weren't counting on and that's the secondary. Darrelle Revis, the old reliable corner, has been victimized a few times this season—first in week one with AJ Green's 180-yard showing, then against the Bills when Marquise Goodwin ran by him for an 84-yard TD strike. With Greg Salas scoring on a 71-yard strike, the long play is an early-season concern for this group. In week one against Cincy, they gave up three passing plays of 49 or more yards. They haven't been terrible and when they needed to right the ship on Thursday, they clamped down. But giving up five huge plays in 2 games is something to watch as we move forward.
After beating Houston in the playoffs 30-0 last season, it looked like the revenge factor was at play and KC certainly didn't help their case with three lost fumbles and a generally flat performance. Against a Houston team that was doing a lot of things right, the Chiefs couldn't gain foothold. Alex Smith was not terribly impactful and lost two balls on the afternoon. The run-game, still without Jamaal Charles, was off their best form, as Spencer Ware lost a fumble that was returned 52 yards, as well. They still had 119 yards on just 19 carries, but they didn't really seem to make a dent. A lot of dropped balls, penalties, and a subsequent lack of continuity had the Chiefs offense in knots the whole game, managing only a field goal in the first three quarters of play. One thing that needs to get better is in how well the line is protecting Smith. Through two games, we see opposing pass-rushers practically picnicking on the Chiefs side of the ball and the line is going to have to find some answers and fast or Smith might not be healthy for long. Getting a couple linemen back in the mix after being injured early will help.
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The Kansas City defense hasn't been playing bad since the third quarter of game one, when they stuffed up the Chargers' offense to pave the way for an improbable comeback win in overtime. On Sunday, they let the Texans convert only four third downs, picked off Osweiler twice, and allowed a grand sum of one touchdown on the afternoon. On 34 runs, the Texans averaged 2.9 yards per rush. Marcus Peters, who was tied for the league lead in picks last season, had two on Sunday after a rough week one performance. The results have been mixed for the Chiefs "D" through two weeks, but they are a playmaking defense and at home, they are especially a handful when aided by the vociferous KC faithful.
When at 1-1, these week three matchup are really critical. Go to 2-1, you can build on something and start compiling a strong foundation for a postseason case. Go to 1-2, you're now pushing hard to not go to 1-3 and start spending the whole season in atonement-mode. This game should be a hotly-contested affair that could come right down to the end. I'm taking the points.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the New York Jets plus 3 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting the Jets vs. Chiefs game at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
