NFL Divisional Playoff Props
By Scott, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Playoff NFL football means a plethora of prop bets will flood the betting board. Prop bets get a bad rap. Some associate them with being poor-value bets. And while that can be true, that doesn’t mean there isn’t some good value that can be found if you look hard enough. At times, it’s easier to get a read on something that lies within the game more so than the game itself. There is nothing wrong with having more options. Here are some props in this year’s divisional round that may have some appeal:
Total Rushing Yards - Knowshon Moreno (DEN)
Over/Under 67½
Opinion and Pick: The week off probably helped Moreno get his legs revitalized, but in two games with the Chargers this season, Knowshon only managed a two-game output of 84 yards. That includes a paltry 19 yards on 8 carries in their last game in week 15. In addition, the Chargers front seven appears to be peaking right now and kept the Cincinnati run-game in check last week. Look for a pass-happy approach from Denver on Sunday with Moreno falling short of 68 yards. I’m leaning under.
SPECIALS - Will any team trailing at the half come back to win the game during the Divisional Playoffs?
Yes -200
No +150
Opinion and Pick: While -200 is not the most tantalizing price, it’s somewhat difficult to imagine all 4 games not having a team trailing at halftime that comes back to win. One of the favorites could face a halftime deficit, all playing dangerous opponents. And the Carolina-SF game has the look of a game that could go back-and-forth. It would be surprising to see all 4 winners this weekend just cruise to a win with no comebacks at play. -200 for needing only one game with a comeback doesn’t seem like such a bad pick.
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SPECIALS - Will at least 1 Road Team win a game during the Divisional Playoffs?
Yes -400
No +250
Opinion and Pick: In 3 of the 4 games, the home team is better than a touchdown favorite, with the Carolina-San Francisco game a pick ‘em. That’s the one people should worry about the most. But at +250, a stance that all home teams will win is a pick that may have some upside. Again, it’s been such a strange year that asking for a specific result over the course of 4 different games may be asking too much. But +250 may be worth a tickle.
DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF SPECIAL - Who will record the most Passing Yards?
Peyton Manning (DEN) QB 3/2
Drew Brees (NO) QB 3/1
Tom Brady (NE) QB 6/1
Philip Rivers (SD) QB 6/1
Andrew Luck (IND) QB 6/1
Cam Newton (CAR) QB 12/1
Russell Wilson (SEA) QB 12/1
Colin Kaepernick (SF) QB 15/1
Opinion and Pick: Sure, you have to give the nod to Manning or maybe even Brees. But perhaps a more long-shot pick is in order. With the Saints’ secondary looking pretty ragged, could Russell Wilson light them up? 12/1 might be worth a small tickle, especially considering that Wilson did put up 310 yards against New Orleans on December 2 against a Saints team whose secondary was more on-point than it looked at the end of the Philly game last week. At 6/1, Philip Rivers is interesting, though he didn’t really put up big numbers in either of his two games against Denver this season. But he’s hot and may have a big day. But with Manning at 3/2, he certainly has the edge in this category and no one should be surprised if he blows away this field.
Total Receptions - Keenan Allen (SD)
Over/Under 4½
Opinion and Pick: Allen had 6 catches in 2 games this year against Denver. But the rookie receiver will likely be Rivers’ top option and the QB has been hot lately. Allen was over 1000 yards this season and caught 71 balls. Something tells me he will have at least 5 catches in this game, making the “over” an interesting option.
