Oakland Raiders (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
Week 1 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, September 8, 2013 at 1PM EST
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: Oak +7/Ind -7
Over/Under Total: 48
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The Oakland Raiders visit Lucas Oil Stadium to face the Indianapolis Colts in the opener to the 2013 NFL season. The Raiders are looking for something, anything to get this franchise headed in the right direction. Quietly, Oakland made some nice moves in the offseason that could make a difference. The Colts are looking to show last year was no fluke and graduate to the status of an elite AFC team.
We’ve all heard a lot of talk about Indianapolis heading into this season, that they caught lightning in a bottle last year. The rap goes that they were galvanized by the health crisis of their head coach Chuck Pagano and propelled to a handful of 4th quarter comebacks and close victories. They benefitted from the expert fill-in work of Bruce Arians and now he’s gone, the coach is healthy, and they’re going to come back to earth this season. People are using this all as ammo to predict an Indy letdown this season. Seems like too easy of an explanation. The Colts should be fine. This is a team that went from 1 win to 11 wins in one season. Whatever magic led to that isn’t going to just evaporate for no good reason.
At the same time, Andrew Luck needs to improve in the area of turnovers and a few things need to develop for the Colts to turn into a reliable contender. They got Ahmad Bradshaw, but the running game lacks that explosive dimension you’d like to see. And the front line, partially responsible for the lack of a run game and protection for Luck, wasn’t that great in 2012. Luck has a great receiver in Reggie Wayne and a pair of productive ball-catching tight ends in Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, but they could use a second and third receiver piece to go along with Wayne.
The Raiders obviously have their own issues. This offense lacks continuity and after getting rid of Carson Palmer, is now going with either Matt Flynn or Terrelle Pryor at quarterback. How good he will be is up in the air, but the skepticism is understandable in this case. RB Darren McFadden is a heck of a back, but has tallied one lone 1000-yard season in his 5-year career. A constant injury threat, he needs to be healthy for this offense to have a chance. This is his contract year, so maybe something will click and he can fulfill some of his enormous potential.
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Oakland’s top returning pass-catcher is their fullback, Marcel Reece, who is really a good do-it-all kind of guy who doesn’t get a lot of attention. Still, that speaks volumes about the lack of a viable passing game and Oakland lost TE Brandon Myers, who led Oakland with 79 catches last year. Danarius Moore is a tremendous talent and this is his year to show he can take it to the next level. Rod Streater and Jacoby Ford could possibly add something to what was a pedestrian 2012 passing game.
Indy caught lightning in a bottle last year and did so with a lot of injuries on the roster. The O-line had problems in this area, as did the D-line. The Colts beefed up the secondary, adding S LaRon Landry and CB Greg Toler from Arizona. They also got Lawrence Sidbury from Atlanta to help what should be an improved linebacking crew that also added first-rounder Bjoern Werner to the mix. There is a lot of talent on that side of the ball. The Colts have a ton of guys coming into their second seasons and theoretically, some of them should be better. If Luck can cut down on turnovers, the O-line gels quickly, and the “D” becomes a weekly menace to opposing offenses, the Colts will be right in the thick of things.
The Raiders get old Raiders star Charles Woodson back to help in the secondary, along with first-rounder DJ Hayden and Mike Jenkins from Dallas. This looks to be an improved part of the game and they will need to be with what appears to be a negligible Raiders pass rush. You have to like how GM Reggie McKenzie is rebuilding this team.
Oakland almost begs a wait-and-see approach from prospective bettors. If they can’t apply pressure on Luck, it might not matter how improved the Raiders’ secondary is. And QB Matt Flynn isn’t getting anyone excited in the preseason. Pryor might just give them their best chance and as of this writing, the issue is still undecided. It actually seems like Pryor may have edged forward a tiny bit.
The Colts are more proven at this point, obviously. People may predict a letdown and could end up being correct. But they are at home and should be pumped up to open the season even against a Raiders team that has yet to climb out of a prolonged funk. If this were later in the season, maybe there would be a lack of urgency on the part of Indy, but not in the season opener. At the same time, it is understandable for those who are hesitant to accept Indy in the role of a big favorite at this point. In 8 home games in 2012, they were never bigger than 3.5-point favorites, even though they were 7-1 at home ATS.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Indianapolis Colts laying 7 points.
