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Football Betting Systems: The Opposite System

By Loot, NFL Handicapper,

For those who have had a rough time betting on football, you have probably thought of doing the opposite of what they have been doing. On paper, it sort of makes sense. If everything within you causes you to make bad picks, then the opposite must be good picks. If you are bad at betting on football, the opposite would naturally equal success.

If you were 42% against the spread one year, then doing the opposite would have resulted in 58% wins. It’s seems ridiculous, but in a way--it makes sense. If everything you do is wrong, the opposite would have to be right. It’s like the episode on Seinfeld where George Costanza, who long suffered with meeting women, decided to do the direct opposite of what his gut told him. So rather than lie about being an architect and his house in the Hamptons, he approached women and immediately stated that he lives with his parents. And of course, George began getting dates.

And losing is no accident in NFL football. When you go years and years and years without turning a profit, there is usually something endemic about your techniques that are flawed. It’s deep-rooted. You’re like King Midas in reverse. Everything you touch turns to doo-doo. You’re not alone. Welcome to the other 98% of the world when it comes to not making it as a NFL football bettor.

The problem with the opposite theory is that you will be conscious of what you are doing. It’s hard to handicap a game with a true heart, knowing you are just going to switch it at the end of the whole ordeal. You might think you can do it. You’ll think you can just hypnotize yourself into handicapping games the way you always have. The only thing you do different is when you go to lay the bet, you just switch it. Technically, it seems doable, but one just can’t forget that they’re going to switch the bet at the end.

There seems to be two options when you are not good at picking professional football games--improve or quit. (You can however ride our NFL picks; they do win long term) There is a lot of information out there and if you keep an open mind and make the right adjustments, you can turn things around. If that’s not up your alley, just find another way to amuse yourself. But going the opposite of what you like runs contrary to almost everything that makes a good bettor.

First of all, you’re not depending on your insight. You’re banking on your ineffectiveness. Furthermore, if you don’t have the winner’s touch, the opposite format won’t work. You can’t pick winners. And once you change, you’ll lose those too. You might not even be a bad handicapper, you’re just bad at other things. Maybe you have leaks. You do weird stuff to recoup losses. And when you win, you are willy-nilly with your earnings and use it as an excuse to burn the candle at both ends. The opposite system doesn’t work. You’ll just have to improve the old-fashioned way.

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