New Orleans Saints (12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS) vs. Seattle Seahawks (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS)
NFC Divisional Playoff Round
Date/Time: Saturday, January 11, 2014 at 4:35PM EST
Where: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: NO +9.5/SEA -9.5
Over/Under Total: 47.5
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On Saturday in the NFC divisional round, the New Orleans Saints come into CenturyLink Field to take on the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks. With the top-seed, Seattle got the week off as they braced themselves for a home game, where they are fantastic and buoyed by the top home-field advantage in the NFL. The Saints, meanwhile, scored a huge win on Saturday, taking to the road to beat the surging Philadelphia Eagles.
Sure, all but the most ardent Saints’ supporters would have to like Seattle in this game. But caution should be exercised before relegating the Saints to the scrap heap. Many considered the Eagles to be a big X-factor in the playoffs. New Orleans, as form dictated, would not be able to win a road playoff game in cold weather and that proved to be hogwash, as veteran Drew Brees stewarded his squad to victory in conditions where people always expect a heavily-diminished version of the Saints.
The Saints have some things in common with the team that won the Super bowl several seasons ago. They have an underrated running game, a solid defense, and of course, the high-flying act of Brees and his deep cast of powerful weapons. Watching them win a tight game on the road where defense was a big issue shows they are not a one-trick pony that needs to win shootouts to emerge victorious. In this game, the Saints’ will have to be at their best in all facets--offense, defense, special teams and coaching. It’s not out-of-reach for the Saints, but this is going to be super-tough.
A playoff atmosphere in Seattle is going to be a ton to overcome for any team. These are the most frothing fans in the league. Everything has been setting up for this moment for months now. Seattle has their best chance to have a champion this year, in a sports-crazed city where titles haven’t been that easy to come by. This crowd will be going bonkers.
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The Saints will also have to overcome the knowledge that they played their worst game of the year in Seattle not that long ago on the 2nd of December. The 34-7 laugher really painted the Saints in a negative light, as Brees threw for only 147 yards and there was no running game to speak of. The Saints’ offensive output was the lowest it has been since Aaron Brooks was starting at quarterback. And a much-improved defense that had been playing well looked more like the historically-terrible “D” of 2012 in that game. Meanwhile, the physical Seattle defense was hell on the Saints, completely flummoxing them. While we know how faulty it can be to rely on regular season games to gauge how the postseason will play out, the Saints will need a massive upgrade in form in order to reverse what happened a little over a month ago. It was a big game and the Saints were nowhere even close in an absolute rout. It looked like the Seattle defense was kryptonite to the Saints.
The Saints did manage one good thing in that game--keeping Marshawn Lynch to 45 yards on 16 carries. On Saturday, they had the league’s top rusher LeSean McCoy bottled up for most of the game. And New Orleans has found some answers of their own in the run game, with Mark Ingram getting almost 100 yards on Saturday and others stepping up over the last-half of the season.
Even as they won at Philly, the defense started to unravel late with mounting injuries. Their secondary was already banged-up, but losing corner Keenan Lewis to a concussion was almost the last straw. He is listed as questionable for this game. On one hand, they still have a ton of big-play guys on “D” like Akiem Nicks, Cameron Jordan, Junior Gallette, and Curtis Lofton. But that secondary is on thin ice with all the personnel losses and even though they held it together against the Eagles, it wasn’t by much and the Saints needed a field goal with time running out to win.
Not that Seattle’s Russell Wilson is so explosive, though they did have the 4th best run-game in the NFL this season. But they are ultra-efficient, leading the entire league in turnover ratio at +20. Parlay that with the top defense in football and a deafening home crowd and it’s easy to see why they are in this position. But in a one-game window, a lot of things can happen that go contradictory to the script. It wouldn’t be so crazy if New Orleans were able to explode offensively or if Seattle were slow out of the starting gate, which could take the crowd out of the game and make covering the spread very tough. Let’s face it, it’s been a strange season where anything has been plausible. We try to get a bede on a game, only to tune in time and again to see something completely different happening. This has the vibe of a game that could be like that.
Sure, Seattle dominated New Orleans in the first game and this could be a little out of the Saints’ depth. Still, laying almost double-digits on a team that doesn’t always put up a lot of points against a potentially-explosive Saints teams is a bit daunting. The Saints might not have much more than an outside chance of winning this game, but perhaps they will be able to get off to a fast start and make covering the number a little hard on Seattle.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I like the New Orleans Saints plus 9.5 points.
