San Diego Chargers (4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS)
Week 17 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, January 3, 2016 at 4:25PM EST
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
TV: CBS
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: SD +8.5/DEN -8.5
Over/Under Total: 41
The San Diego Chargers come into Mile High on Sunday to face the Denver Broncos in a key week 17 AFC West battle. This was expected to be a much bigger game, with a lot of people picking San Diego to win the division this season. That didn't come close to happening, as they are reduced to the role of spoiler in the final week of the season. For Denver, coming off a triumphant 20-17 overtime win on Monday Night Football, this game is very important and one should expect the Broncos to be shot out of a cannon on Sunday. On December 6, the Chargers lost at home to the Broncos, 17-3.
Other than Pittsburgh and the Jets, who are still battling it out for the final spot, no team faces a more pivotal week 17 game than the Broncos. They made the playoffs with their win over the Bengals on MNF. But the spectrum of possibilities is wide-ranging, as a loss in this game could lead to Denver being on the road for the wild card round. Then again, they could lose and still end up with a first-round bye, but would need both the Bengals and Chiefs to lose, which is most unlikely. A win here opens up a plethora of possibilities. They would win the division, get a first-round bye, and possibly even secure home-field throughout the postseason if New England loses on Sunday. It's not very often in week 17 that a team that already made the playoffs is facing such a wide array of possibilities, from being a wild card team to the one-seed in the conference. It all hinges on this game.
It's been a strange year for Denver. On the surface, an 11-4 record seems simple enough. But with Manning out for a number of weeks with Brock Osweiler taking over, it just feels strange. To his credit, the youngster has really taken the bull by the horns, running the offense capably. This season saw a shift under first-year head coach Gary Kubiak, where they moved away from a QB-dominated approach to a team that relies on defense and a more efficient approach on offense. In a way, the overall importance of the quarterback has been lessened to where you can have a guy like Osweiler in there and still thrive. Denver is a team in transition, while also trying to maintain their status as a conference frontrunner—a very unique position and one they've executed pretty well.
Osweiler depends on a cast of weapons that isn't as strong as it once was, but still has a lot of bite. Demaryius Thomas is a fantastic receiver and produces in clutch situations. He made several unlikely catches late that helped Denver thwart Cincinnati on MNF. The run game is not consistent, but CJ Anderson looks to be rounding back into form after a good showing against Cincy. Tight end Owen Daniels was big too with a handful of big catches. And Osweiler was near 300 yards. He can make a lot of the throws and is warming to the task and looking more like the starter with his body language and play. Delivering on a come-from-behind overtime win over a playoff team on Monday really counts for a lot.
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Hats off to the Denver defense for another standout performance on MNF. It didn't look good as the Bengals and backup AJ McCarron jumped out to a 14-0 lead. But the defense buckled down. For the final 40 minutes of regulation and in overtime, the defense held Cincinnati to a lone field goal. There is a lot to like about this defense, which is the top-ranked "D" in the NFL, ranked first against the pass and second against the run. Their pass-rush really sets them apart, as they have 49 sacks on the season. More importantly, the pass-rush seems to get better as the game goes on and late in games, they are a huge contributor to the team effort. It's not a stretch to say this part of the team has accounted for a few extra wins this season. Against the San Diego O-line, look for more of the same. Denver's "D" has also scored 5 touchdowns this season.
San Diego has been slightly better heading down the stretch, winning two of their last 5, with two close losses tucked into that stretch. Philip Rivers is over 4500 yards and despite crippling injuries, can still get the ball in the hands of different guys. They are the worst running offense in the NFL and pretty one-dimensional on that side of the ball. And it was hard to not notice how much this offense struggled against Denver's defense in their first game, held to just three points at home.
The San Diego defense is actually a rising unit, just handcuffed by being hung out to dry constantly. And on December 6, they gave Denver a lot of issues, holding them to one early TD and then just a field goal for the rest of the game, though the Denver "D" had a pick-six. Osweiler has seen this "D" before and knows what he's up against, but one shouldn't overlook the fact that San Diego is starting to find its stride on this side of the ball and that could manifest here in a game with a young QB who might be pressing to make good things happen.
This game means a lot for Denver and not so much for San Diego. They're likely playing with a lame-duck coach, the whole Eric Weddle debacle may have resonated poorly, and they are simply lacking the horses to compete with the better teams. But that starts to create almost too convenient of a conclusion and the NFL seldom follows the script so dutifully. I think the Chargers will hang in there and points may to be precious to warrant laying so many points. And who knows, maybe the thought of this possibly being their last game as the San Diego Chargers will resonate in some way. Either way, I'm going with the Chargers.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the San Diego Chargers plus 8.5 points.Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!
