San Diego Chargers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
Week 1 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, September 11, 2016 at 1PM EST
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: CBS
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: SD +7/KC -7
Over/Under Total: 44.5
The San Diego Chargers meet the Kansas City Chiefs in AFC West action to kick off the NFL season on the opening Sunday of the year. The Chiefs are looking to take over the AFC West and even beyond after a big 2015 where they won 11 straight games before losing a one-score playoff game to the Patriots. They get star back Jamaal Charles back from injury and are looking for big things this season. The Chargers are just seeking a positive development after a 4-12 season where not many things went according to plan.
Having grown up around San Diego, one can't help but notice a lot of their better teams materialized when no one thought it would. And naturally, whenever the hopes are high, the Bolts fall flat. This season, there aren't a ton of people fancying the Chargers. For good reason. But they're one of those high-ceiling bad teams, a team that is bad at least partially because of a ton of bad breaks. If some of those bad breaks become good ones, things could change rapidly for a Chargers team that has a lot of interesting pieces.
Philip Rivers is one of the best in the business—a fact that would be more-apparent to others if he ever had the right horses around him. Some stars will need to line up right for him to have the right horses around him this season. First, a good season from 2nd-year back Melvin Gordon would really pay off. Maybe some use of fullback Derek Watt and an intact line can help spring him this season. What could make that happen is better overall team health, especially on the offensive line. For the last few seasons, the line has been so battered that the line you see at the end of the season bears no resemblance to the original unit. And avoiding the injury bug would also help a talented receiver crew. Keenan Allen was on his way to a signature season before a lacerated spleen brought an end to a promising season.
The San Diego offense and special teams gets a little boost from the signing of Travis Benjamin, who was near 1000 yards receiving last season with the Browns. They lost Stevie Johnson, who was supposed to be one of their role guys this season. Danny Woodhead caught 80 balls last season, while TE Antonio Gates still brings big-time talent to the table. Second-rounder TE Hunter Henry will probably get some work this season. Up-front, they could be solid with guys staying healthy—always a big if for this team, which seems almost snake-bitten in this area. The left side of the line is solid with King Dunlap and Orlando Franklin. Rookie Max Tuerk will duke it out with Matt Slauson for the starting center gig, while the right side looks good with DJ Fluker (questionable) and Joe Barksdale. If guys do go down, the one benefit from a line decimated the last few years by injury is that a lot of experienced depth is now behind the starting five.
The San Diego defense was not very resilient against the run, though there were some measurable strides made last season. The line was a major issue and was heavily addressed in the offseason. Rookie and number-three pick Joey Bosa signed late and might not be ready to hit the ground running in week one. DT Brandon Mebane was signed and will be good at run-stuffing, with excellent Corey Liuget on the other side. The 3-4 set could let a strong linebacking crew shine, with Melvin Ingram and Jeremiah Attaochu on the outside, with Manti Te'o and Denzel Perryman inside. The secondary loses longtime standout S Eric Weddle, but added Dwight Lowery, who joins Jahleel Addae. Corners Jason Verrett and Brandon Flowers are a good corner tandem, bolstered by the addition of Green Bay's Casey Heyward. With some things falling the right way, this defense could be pretty good. But for that to happen, they will need to develop the capacity for notching a key play in timely situations—an area where they have struggled massively in recent seasons.
Kansas City started 1-5 last year and went on to win their next 11 games into the playoffs. If after Jamaal Charles went down in the fifth game you had said they'd go on to the postseason, you'd had been laughed out of the room. It's important to gauge the character of a team that is able to do that. This could be the year 4th-year Chiefs coach Andy Reid gets this team to put together a full 16-game season. In the past several seasons, they have peeled off some massive win streaks.
Charles returns and may be the most underrated back of this generation. His return has been slow and he might not be ready to be the key part of this offense that he's accustomed. And if they decide to give him a lesser workload or if he continues struggling to return to 100%, last season revealed a pair of capable replacements in Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware. Alex Smith could use a lot more protection up-front to take advantage of his skills. The receiver crew is pretty thin. Jeremy Maclin is a good player, but lacking as a number-one, with Albert Wilson productive without being captivating in any way. TE Travis Kelce is a great weapon, but it's a thin bunch overall. The front line is good in springing loose the run, while a better job of protecting Smith would be nice. Mitchell Schwartz is in from Cleveland at RT to join cornerstone and left tackle Eric Fisher. Center is again occupied by Mitch Morse, with rookie Parker Ehringer and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif on the inside.
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The 7th-ranked Kansas City defense made a lot of strides last season. Chris Jones, Jaye Howard, Dontari Poe, Allen Bailey, and draft pick Chris Jones should combine to make an impact up-front. The middle should be great, but is undermined by issues with Justin Houston's health. Still, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Josh Mauga, and DJ Alexander make up a competent group that needs to stay healthy. If the LB crew got old quicker than expected, this "D" could suffer. The secondary is an effective and playmaking unit. They got a big boost with rookie Marcus Peters at corner, as he tied for the league interception lead with 8. He is joined by Phillip Gaines, with Jamell Fleming and 2015 Comeback Player of the Year Eric Berry. Free agent Stevie Brown, and rookie KeiVerae Russell could also be heard from this season.
This is a pivotal season for both teams. The Chargers need to show some positive developments or this latest system could be scratched. Either way, head coach Mike McCoy is on the hot-seat. The Chiefs have been knocking on the door, but this is a year where they should supplant Denver as the power of the AFC West. I just think some people are overlooking the fact that San Diego actually has a pretty high ceiling if they can catch a couple breaks. Not beaten down yet by a hard season, I see them giving the Chiefs a run for their money in KC.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the San Diego Chargers plus 7 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
