San Francisco 49ers (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS)
Week 11 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, November 17, 2013 at 4:25PM EST
Where: Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: CBS
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: SF +3.5/NO -3.5
Over/Under Total: 47.5
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In an important NFC game, the 6-3 San Francisco 49ers come to the Superdome to face the New Orleans Saints. The Niners lost a disappointing game to the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, 10-9, where their offense seemed stuck in the mud. The Saints, meanwhile, avoided losing their 3rd in 4 games by beating the Cowboys on Sunday night, 49-17, setting an NFL record with an incredible 40 first downs. Look for both teams to be gunning hard for a win.
The thing about the Saints that is scary for future opponents is that they got here without their offense really hitting its stride. On Sunday, they surely did, torching the Cowboys with impunity en route to a through shellacking. Brees went for 392 yards and 4 touchdowns. Marques Colston returned from injury and a period of dormancy with 7 catches, 107 yards, and a touchdown. Darren Sproles caught 7 balls, scoring a touchdown both on the ground and in the air. And developing rookie WR Kenny Stills had another nice game. Most promising was the performance of RB Mark Ingram, also returning from injury. Ingram ran for a 145 yards on 14 carries with a touchdown. And they managed 40 first downs without their main receiving threat TE Jimmy Graham in full-bloom. Graham is nursing a few injuries and saw a limited role on Sunday. It didn’t really seem to hurt, which speaks to the depth on this offense.
Whereas the New Orleans offense set records on Sunday, the Frisco offense hit the skids. Carolina is unquestionable a rising squad with a top “D,” but 3 field goals at home is not what you want from a team that is supposed to be contending for the conference. At the same time, the loss did come following a 5-game winning streak that included 5 covers. On Sunday and coming off a bye, Kaepernick was sacked 6 times and reduced to 11 completions. Not that they need a prolific pass-attack. Even the San Fran team that went to the Super Bowl last season was at best a middling passing offense. But they are dead-last this season, with Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis providing an inconsistent 1-2 punch. Still, it’s a defense that in its last 6 games has given up a combined 60 points. The “D” got them back into it after a 1-2 start. They’re not going to win any kind of shootout against the Saints. Again, the defense will be called upon to get the job done, as the offense can hopefully get something moving against the Saints. They sure couldn’t get much going last week.
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It’s just that it’s the New Orleans “D” that has really made the difference for the Saints. A porous unit last year of historic proportions, this unit now shines against the pass and is pretty stiff in most areas. They are 3rd in the NFL against the pass and 5th in total points allowed. It has allowed them to thrive and win games even when the offense isn’t hitting on all cylinders.
It seems like the Saints could be poised for big things. They’re a team that has unrevealed layers that could manifest later in the season. If they can get the running game going and convert their offensive output into points better as they did on Sunday, they could hit a big midseason groove. The Saints soared against the Cowboys, but might have to trudge through the mud more on Sunday against the stout San Francisco defense.
The 49ers offense matches up decently against the Saints, who have not been very stout against the run. That’s the 49ers’ forte so they should see more success on the fast Superdome track, as they did last year in this same matchup--a 31-21 win for the 49ers. It’s just that both teams are different this year. The 49ers have become a slightly less-bankable commodity, whereas the Saints have reclaimed their position as a top NFC threat.
The Saints have a newfound air of efficiency to their offense, though it is still obviously capable of explosiveness. Brees has 25 touchdowns against 7 picks on nearly 70% completions. The team is second only to the Chiefs in giving the ball away only 10 times this season. They’re a team that has really turned around a lot of things for the better this season.
What might be worrisome for potential Saints backers is how San Francisco fought back so hard in the midst of their early-season adversity. The way they reversed the momentum so suddenly suggested they will not go willing if pushed into that situation again. Another loss would have them at 6-4 and 7-3 just sounds so much better. I see a tight game where picking a winner seems an almost arbitrary decision. In that event, we take the points.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the San Francisco 49ers plus 3.5 points.
