San Francisco 49ers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. St. Louis Rams (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS)
Week 4 NFL
Date/Time: Thursday, September 26, 2013 at 8:25PM EST
Where: Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, Missouri
TV: NFL Network
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: SF -3/STL +3
Over/Under Total: 42.5
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On Thursday, the San Francisco 49ers come to the Edward Jones Dome to face the St. Louis Rams in an important NFC West matchup. Both teams have been disappointing, with 1 cover in 6 combined games. While St. Louis is feeling bad about the way the season has started, it has to sting more for the 49ers--last year’s NFC champion and this season’s favorite to repeat as conference champions.
Everything started well for the Niners, with all cylinders hitting in their opening week win over the Packers. Then they went to Seattle and got their butts handed to them in a 29-3 no-contest. OK, no problem. Seattle is tough and unbeatable lately at home. Things were supposed to pick up on Sunday at home against the Colts as double-digit favorites and they lose 27-7. Yikes!
In a mere two weeks, the Niners now appear to be in a near-crisis situation. QB Colin Kaepernick looks shellshocked, unable to get much of anything going, with 10 points in his last 2 games. He will have to come up with something to fight back what looks to be a burgeoning case of the sophomore blues, though he is technically in his third season. RB Frank Gore looks sluggish to open the season, despite a decent showing on Sunday. Vernon Davis not being in the game hurt. Aldon Smith appears set to enter rehab for substance abuse. The list of unpleasantries goes on...
Luckily for the Niners, they’re facing another team wrought with dysfunction in the St. Louis Rams, albeit a team that played them awfully-tough last season, going 1-0-1. With Jeff Fisher in his 2nd year as coach, Sam Bradford entering his 4th year as a starter, and some added pieces of manpower--it seemed the Rams were poised for a little bit of an upswing and it simply hasn’t happened. We may have expected Bradford to be better and that hasn’t happened either. It’s a discouraging situation and after not covering the spread in their first 3 games, it’s clear they are underperforming. There are no guarantees that will turn around.
Losing to the Cowboys on the road is one thing. Getting bombed out 31-7 as mere 3.5-point dogs is another. It was ugly. Those who took the Rams knew almost immediately the bet was a loser. They allowed a nice performance from QB Tony Romo and gave up 175 on the ground to DeMarco Murray. St. Louis was 1-13 in third down conversions and were just awful. Other than the New York Giants, they were probably the worst team on the field last week.
So we see two teams with similar circumstances entering Thursday’s game. But St. Louis has been subpar for a while now, whereas the Niners entered the season as one of the teams to watch for possible Super Bowl honors. It’s been a steeper fall from grace for San Francisco. But let’s remember--it’s early. And losses earlier in the season get weighted more heavily because they are all we have to go off of, as opposed to a midseason slump. Should we expect San Fran to break out of their doldrums at some point with all this talent and good coaching? We probably should. But can we expect them to get this turned around in just a couple days? That’s another issue.
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If St. Louis plays like they did against the Cowboys, this is probably the week the Niners get their act together. Their “D” against the run was laughable for long stretches of the game. The run-game, which was supposed to stay on-point despite losing Steven Jackson, has been sluggish. The playmakers haven’t been stepping up. WR Tavon Austin, forecasted to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year by many pundits, has caught 18 balls. But with 118 yards, the burner is averaging an unconscionably-low 6.6 yards per catch. A few beacons of light is the play of tight end Jared Cook (13-195-2) and the fact that the offensive line has allowed only one sack all season.
Frisco has lost their swagger on both sides of the ball and it’s hard to get that back in a short week. They catch a break here by facing a beatable team, but it’s difficult at this point to feel comfortable laying points on a team like this, especially on the road. After the way Kaepernick played last year, it was hard to deny that the kid was a star. But maybe things came a little too easy for him. He took over a team that was riding high and rode it all the way to the Super Bowl. What we don’t yet know is how he deals with the adversity.
St. Louis should be more reliable this week at home playing a divisional opponent. But unless the Niners have completely become dilapidated, this is a “get-well-spot” they could exploit. It’s just that neither of the two teams are evoking much bettor confidence at this point.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The difference maker here is how the Rams handled SF in both games last year. They played them TOUGH. Furthermore, Vegas is receiving one sided action on the Niners and the line isn't budging. This isn't a lock by any means, but I'm betting the Rams to win this game straight up.
