Seattle Seahawks (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS)
Super Bowl XLVIII
Date/Time: Sunday, February 2, 2014 at 6:25PM EST
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: SEA +1/DEN -1
Over/Under Total: 48
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In Super Bowl XLVIII, the Seattle Seahawks will take on the Denver Broncos for all the marbles. It’s a super-appealing matchup featuring the league’s best offense (Denver) against the best defense in the game (Seattle). They are both the top-seeds from their conference and offer a ton of contrasts that should give way to a heck of game that could go in a number of different directions. Denver’s offense isn’t simply good, but it’s historically-prolific, as the Broncos set numerous team and individual records this season. And Seattle’s defense isn’t just good--it’s one of the top defenses seen in this league in the past quarter-century. Including the playoffs, both teams are 15-3.
These teams were once division rivals in the old AFC West before Seattle made the sojourn to the NFC in 2002. Whereas they used to be massively-familiar with each other, these teams are now strangers, having last played in 2010 when both were completely different teams, though they did play in 2013 preseason. They are clearly the two best teams in the league, but neither club has seen an opponent like what they will be facing in Super Bowl 48.
The Denver defense pales to the Seattle unit, but they have managed to get the job done in this postseason. The scores looks closer than the games actually were, but Denver was able to stifle the powerful San Diego and New England offenses and get off to big leads in both games. Despite injuries-galore on that side of the ball, they’re not as bad as their rankings and some of the final scores would indicate. And looking at how Seattle is having trouble offensively, that could be a major issue. San Diego and New England were able to make a go of it late in both of Denver’s playoff games this postseason, but Seattle is not built for coming back from big margins. If Denver shuts down Lynch early and puts pressure on Wilson, that spells big trouble for Seattle.
The two-week break helps both teams. Denver needs to get their running back healthy again, as Knowshon Moreno had to leave the New England game with hurt ribs. But Seattle really had a pair of tough physical games against the Saints and then in a brutal war with San Francisco in the NFC title game and can probably use the time even more than Denver to recuperate from those games. They will get Percy Harvin back, who could be an interesting X-factor. And the extra time will give key Seattle contributors like DE Michael Bennett and WR Doug Baldwin time to lick their wounds from the San Francisco game.
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But let’s not get distracted from the fact that Seattle’s defense is truly the full package. They can apply pressure up-front and their secondary is deep, talented, and ultra-intimidating. It was hard to not notice how San Francisco’s players were getting battered beyond anything you commonly see in a football game. This is a unit that steps up the most when the situation is at its most critical. Though no one would admit it, it’s has to be a little daunting for Denver’s offense, knowing they’re going against a supremely tough and scary defense. It could be more of a grind than potential Denver backers are anticipating. One thinks back to Super Bowl XXXIV, when the super-powered Rams didn’t look like their high-flying selves against a good Titans’ defense.
Alas, the Seahawks, for however awesome their defense is, has not faced an offense like what Denver brings to the table. Denver has 3 or 4 ball-catchers who would be the number-one guy on Seattle. They run routes that are more complex than what Seattle is accustomed. Sure, Seattle got the job done against San Fran, but the 49ers’ passing game is not even on the same planet as Denver’s. They have one of the best quarterbacks of all-time, a scary group of receivers, and the top offense in league history. Seattle has their work cut out for them--make no mistake. Denver is one of those teams that can effortlessly get the ball into the red zone in the time it takes you to bring some dishes to the sink. If any secondary has a chance to quell the explosive Denver passing-attack, it’s certainly Seattle. One shouldn’t be so quick to assume, however, that they will be able to keep Denver in first gear for 60 minutes.
Seattle’s front should make major problems for Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball. Denver’s success is partly-based on Moreno having such a good year, which further opened up the pass-game. If he gets bottled up all day, Denver may be forced to rely on the pass. But that might not be so bad, as Manning should be able to hit guys in the flat when the deep threats get blanketed. And Moreno is a pretty decent ball-catcher in his own right.
The battle lines are drawn--it’s the defense of Seattle against the offense of Denver. But can Denver’s defense outshine the sometimes-pedestrian offense of Seattle? Look for Seattle’s RB Marshawn Lynch to have his moments, but even he might meet surprisingly-stiff resistance from Denver’s front. In the AFC title game, the Broncos rendered a blossoming Pats’ running game almost moot. And let’s face it, Seattle’s offense isn’t really in the same league as New England or San Diego.
The contrast in these two teams is strong both on and off the field. Seattle has a defiant “us against the world” mentality that bolsters their toughness. Denver, conversely, has more of a “we are the world” vibe. Denver is more representative of the “establishment,” while the Seahawks have more of a collective outlaw persona. That doesn’t necessarily translate to Seattle somehow being more hungry. After all, Denver has been gearing for this since signing Manning. Last year, they got their feet wet, setting up for the “Super Bowl or bust” attitude that permeated the organization this season. Everyone on the field will be hungry for victory, but Manning may be the one with a tiny extra edge. The 37-year old knows his chances are running out and is desperate not only to reward Denver’s faith in him, but to notch that ever-important and legacy-affirming second Super Bowl win. It would be a crowning achievement to what has truly been a fantastic comeback story.
Some other potential determinants include the weather. Forecasts show a high in the 30s in East Rutherford with possible snow. And while it’s true that Manning hasn’t always thrived in the cold, two years in Denver couldn’t hurt. He’s been playing home games for two years in temperatures that can get pretty chilly later in the year. At the same time, if it gets real sloppy, the run-heavy offense always has an at least theoretical edge over the aerial-based offense, so it’s something to keep an eye on the closer we get to game-time.
The Broncos have relied on tiring out opposing defenses this season. That was evident against New England. It may be a less-bankable commodity against Seattle, who rotates pass rushers and linebackers. Still, the Seattle secondary will be run ragged. Unlike most teams they faced this season who had one or maybe two viable passing threats, the Broncos are loaded. Someone will get open. Then, there is that time-worn, but still-applicable credo that “defense wins championships,” but a look at modern Super Bowl history shows that offense wins titles too. It’s really a compelling contrast. A lot of this game’s result will come down to the Seattle secondary and how well they play--not to mention what the refs are willing to call.
Denver, with burgeoning talent like Terrance Knighton up-front, may be more effective against the run than what some might expect. Seattle’s O-line, especially on the inside, is not exactly peaking as they come into this game. Lynch has been the most-impressive running back in the postseason, but he’s going to need to come up extra-big in this game. And ditto for the O-line, which didn’t do that well protecting Wilson in the NFC title game.
Seattle can definitely make things hard on Manning and Company. And it’s not like Denver doesn’t have some overall shortcomings on “D” that even a struggling offense like Seattle can exploit. At the end of the day, I just see Denver being a little too good. Maybe if this game took place a year later, the scales could be tipped more in Seattle’s favor. It just seems like it’s Denver’s time now. Seattle will prevent Manning from taking full-flight, but will just come up a bit short offensively. Manning will succeed where the far less-precise Kaepernick failed. I see Denver getting out to a decent lead, before hanging on late to get a narrow win in a really good game.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m taking the Denver Broncos minus one point.
