Seattle Seahawks (11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) vs. Carolina Panthers (15-1 SU, 11-5 ATS)
NFC Divisional Playoff
Date/Time: Sunday, January 17, 2016 at 1:05PM EST
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: SEA +3/CAR -3
Over/Under Total: 44
The Seattle Seahawks face the Carolina Panthers on Sunday in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs. Seattle was fairly fortunate in the wild card round game on Sunday in the arctic-like temperatures of Minneapolis, overcoming a late deficit with a late spurt, while having Vikes' kicker Blair Walsh miss a go-ahead 27-yard FG to win, 10-9. But they're here and still dangerous, facing the Carolina Panthers, rested after a 15-1 regular season. This game features the offense that has scored the most points this season in Carolina against a Seattle defense that allowed the fewest points of any team in the league this year.
On one hand, you have a 15-1 team at home over a team that won 10 games in the regular season the needed a gargantuan break to get here. Usually in such a matchup, you could assume a win for the home team. But this is the Seattle Seahawks, a team that turned things around this season, while still flashing dominant defensive chops. In their last 6 road games, they have allowed one offensive touchdown. That's a hard stat to wrap one's head around and Carolina might have a big old grind on their hands this week. Even though Seattle relied on divine intervention just to get here, they're the two-time defending conference champions for a reason and they hope to show some of that championship mettle on Sunday.
These teams already met this season in an October 18 meeting in Seattle. Carolina emerged with a 27-23 win, when Cam Newton hit Greg Olsen for a 26-yard score in the game's final minute. The loss dropped Seattle to 2-4 and was the end of their down-period, as they began to rally after that defeat. In other words, while Carolina may bear some resemblance to the team that played that day, this is in many ways a different Seattle team. But after appearing to peak late in the season, two of their last three games haven't seen them in the best of form, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.
Seattle had a tough spot on Sunday, playing a fired-up Minnesota team that played really well on defense. For three quarters, a Seattle offense that had made strides and developed into a dangerous aerial unit in the second half of the season was mired in muck with no points. A pair of fourth-quarter scores was enough to nose the Vikes, as the defense held Minnesota to three field goals on the afternoon. Against a good home Minnesota defense, Russell Wilson went for 142 yards on 13-for-26 passing with a TD and a pick. Christine Michel, who is filling in for Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Rawls, was decent, with 70 yards on the ground. Will Lynch reappear in this game? WR Doug Baldwin made some key catches, including the game's only touchdown, while Tyler Lockett had a big 35-yard reception late, though he was mostly quiet.
The Carolina offense will have to deal with a defense that is really tough. And the Seattle "D" is playing a lot better than the group they met in mid-October. Carolina did have a renaissance of sorts this season. They continue to play physically and their defense remains a major factor in games, but the offense has really taken flight, as their top-ranking in the point-scoring department will attest. This season, Cam Newton threw for 35 touchdowns, while running for ten more, as he established himself as one of the MVP frontrunners this season. He has one of the best tight ends in the game in Greg Olsen. WR Ted Ginn had 10 touchdowns. Rookie Devin Funchess got into the swing of things late with some nice production, while old-hand Jericho Cotchery also had some nice moments this season. With Newton on the ground along with Jonathan Stewart, they had the second-ranked run game in the league. Hopefully the week off helped Stewart, who is still listed as questionable after missing the last three games of the season.
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The Carolina defense doesn't get the same shutdown results that Seattle often gets, but it's still a strong suit of the team. They are good against both the run and pass. Overall, they are sixth in overall defense and points allowed. But beyond their overall robustness lies a major playmaking element. They apply a consistent pass rush and can be deadly against the run. In fact, you could say that about their overall play in the trenches, where this team thrives. There are playmakers all over this unit, with Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis patrolling the middle, Kawann Short applying the heat to opposing quarterbacks, and a secondary that is very adept in making things happen with guys like Josh Norman, Roman Harper, and Tre Boston patrolling. Carolina's defense has intercepted opposing quarterbacks 24 times, while recovering 15 fumbles. A lot of the attention in this game will be on the Seattle defense, but let us not forget the immensely-talented Carolina defense, especially as Seattle is struggling lately against the better defenses they are facing.
This is a tough game to call. Carolina is certainly impressive and coming off a great year where they made tremendous strides. It took a lot of work and soldiering through tough sequences over the past several years for the Panthers to get to this point and it's not going to be easy to unseat them in this spot. After all, the Seahawks really got lucky that this isn't Minnesota facing Carolina. And now they face what should be a better team that is rested and at home, a team that has most of its pieces in place, while Seattle's injury predicament this season may be starting to resonate poorly. While it's an endorsement given with some trepidation considering Seattle's knack for winning in the postseason, but I like the Panthers.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Carolina Panthers minus 3 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on games at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
