Seattle Seahawks (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) vs. St. Louis Rams (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS)
Week 8 NFL
Date/Time: Monday Night Football, October 28, 2013 at 8:30PM EST
Where: Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, Missouri
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: SEA -11.5/STL +11.5
Over/Under Total: 42
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On Monday Night Football, the Seattle Seahawks come to the Edward Jones Dome to face the St. Louis Rams. Last Thursday, the Seahawks beat the Cardinals to go to 6-1, as they continue leading the NFC West. The Rams fell to the Panthers 30-15 on Sunday, but the damage went beyond merely losing that game.
Rams’ QB Sam Bradford went down with an ACL and is lost for the season. While there have been times this season, and in all his seasons, where Bradford left something to be desired, the Rams are better with him than without him, especially in light of who is waiting in the wings. Nothing against backup Kellen Clemens, but if were meant to be an NFL starter, it would have happened before now for the 30-year old journeyman. He always had talent, going back to his college days at Oregon, but with just a handful of starts in an 8-year career, the prognosis is iffy at best.
Seattle has bounced back nicely following their only loss of the year to Indianapolis. They are on the heels of consecutive wins over Tennessee and Arizona. They continue to flex a robust run game with QB Russell Wilson and RB Marshawn Lynch, in addition to perhaps the best secondary in the game. Their defense, which is giving up 16.6 points per game, is second in the league in yards allowed.
Seattle has a chance here to put a stamp on their improvement, particularly in the area of playing on the road. This is their 4th road game in 5 games. A win here would take their road record this season to 4-1. Facing 3 of their next 4 games at home, this is a chance to tip the home-field advantage throughout the playoffs more in their favor. Going 4-1 on the road in their first 5 would go a long way towards that, being that they have not lost at home yet in the Russell Wilson era. More good news came out this week, with Percy Harvin returning to practice. That will still take weeks to materialize, but it’s something to look forward to for Seattle.
This might be a simplistic characterization, but Seattle is one of the best teams in football--very possibly the team to beat in the NFC this season. Contrarily, St. Louis was a disappointment even before they lost Bradford. They had gotten their season back on the right track with consecutive wins over Jacksonville and Houston, but we’re talking about teams with two wins between them. When a team without much publicity like St. Louis is 2-5 ATS, that means they were underachieving. And now they have to make a go at it with a backup who has one win in a starting role since 2007.
And it’s not like Clemens has a bunch of tools to work with as he steps into the fold. In essence, the St. Louis offense features a group of skill players who would be marginal complimentary players if on a better team. RB Daryl Richardson, who showed promise as a backup to Steven Jackson, just hasn’t hit his stride. They’ve been getting better results going with rookie RB Zac Stacy, who has been doing decently in the last several games, but he’s hardly a game-breaker. In addition, it’s hard to tell if their receiving corps has depth or if it’s a case of no one really stepping up.
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A glimmer of hope comes from a St. Louis defense which has become better in recent weeks. In their first 3 games, they allowed a robust 86 points. In the 3 games that followed, they gave up a more-respectable 44 points. Against Carolina, they reverted to their early-season form. Still, they are not without hope in this game. A bet on St. Louis makes sense on different levels.
First of all, Seattle is a good team, but it’s not easy to cover the spread in a divisional game as a double-digit road favorite. That spread moved a lot in light of the Rams losing Bradford--maybe a little too much. And again, this is Seattle’s 4th road game in 5 weeks. The potential is there for a little burnout. They’re only one game up on the 49ers for first place. You wouldn’t think they would let up mentally, but it’s been a long run of road games and sometimes teams hit a wall and show up flat.
Clemens filled in for Bradford in 2011 for 3 games, going 0-3. Facing a defense like Seattle with that secondary looks to be a gloomy proposition. But with Seattle perhaps due for a letdown, it may be hard to cover such a grandiose number. The timing doesn’t seem to favor a explosion of Seattle offense. If the Rams, with the savvy coaching of Jeff Fisher, can just hold it together, they will be in a good position to cover the spread.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m gonna take the St. Louis Rams plus 12.5 points.
