St. Louis Rams (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS)
Week 10 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, November 10, 2013 at 1PM EST
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: STL +11/IND -11
Over/Under Total: 43.5
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On Sunday, the St. Louis Rams make the trip to Lucas Oil Stadium to face the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts came back from an 18-point deficit on Sunday night to topple the Houston Texans and now sit at 6-2. The Rams, meanwhile, sunk to 3-6 after a 7-point home loss to Tennessee.
St. Louis had some people thinking they would make a little surge this season and it hasn’t happened. With QB Sam Bradford now out for the year and 6 losses through 9 games, that’ll have to wait until next year. But perhaps St. Louis can build on some things as they continue to rebuild. While they won’t necessarily be a good team, they should be able to avoid laughingstock status. Backup QB Kellen Clemens is not going to inspire fear in opposing defenses, but the veteran understands the system and performed half-decently against Tennessee on Sunday.
Even while struggling, the Rams can still cover spreads. They opened the season not covering in their first 4 games, but have since covered in 3 of their last 5 games. Even as they continue to generally underachieve and struggle with key personnel losses, they aren’t a team you can afford to overlook when at the betting windows.
The receiving game was supposed to get a boost this season for the Rams. And while Jared Cook, Chris Givens, and Austin Pettis have had their moments, the aerial attack wasn’t even taking off when Bradford was in action. Rookie Tavon Austin has caught 31 balls, but for a mystifyingly-low 207 yards. One glimmer of hope is the continued improvement of rookie RB Zac Stacy. He has performed well in 4 of the last 5 games, giving St. Louis an added dimension that could open things up a bit. As of now, however, it is still an offense struggling to find its way, especially now with Bradford on the sidelines.
The Colts are not the easiest team to bet on in spots like this. Even at the halfway point, they have established a pattern of underperforming against unthreatening teams. They had their way with teams like the 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos, but struggled and didn’t cover the spread in games against Oakland, Miami, and San Diego. On Sunday, Indy backers had to sweat it, as the Colts rallied from a 3rd quarter 24-6 deficit to notch the road win and cover.
It’s hard to argue with the bottom line and the Colts have covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games. Their defense has the tendency to struggle in all areas. They’re pretty soft against the run and opposing quarterbacks aren’t having that much trouble putting up yards. But It speaks volumes that they are 7th in points allowed, despite being ranked 28th against he pass and 17th against the run. It shows they’re a unit that gets stops and delivers when most needed.
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It just feels that the Colts are due for something bad to happen. It can be dangerous to bet football this way, to rely on your internal Doppler radar to forecast team letdowns. It seemed like this type of thinking was utilized a lot last week for those who picked Houston on Sunday night and they were almost right. Now, it seems even more due. Following this game, they get tough division rival Tennessee twice in three weeks, then have to go to Cincinnati. So a rough patch awaits--with 3 road games in 4 weeks against tougher competition. Could they be caught sleeping a bit here against a neglected and off-the-radar Rams team?
The Colts did OK in their first game without Reggie Wayne, who was lost for the season against Denver. WR Darrius Heyward-Bey is a nice side-piece, but he’s a little iffy in the starting role. T.Y. Hilton appears ready to be targeted more, as he showed on Sunday with three touchdown grabs on 121 yards receiving. And while Donald Brown is making headway at running back, it’s hard to not be disappointed with the play of early-season acquisition Trent Richardson, who seems mired in concrete so far as a Colt. QB Andrew Luck has been very solid and clutch, but one gets the feeling that this offense, while getting the job done now, is on tenuous ground.
With the Rams looking so bad at times, a stance on Indianapolis isn’t an altogether faulty stance to take. They appear to be the best 4th quarter team in the NFL. But 11 is a steep spread and I say the Rams keep it tight for most of the game and come within 11 when it’s over.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting the St. Louis Rams and 11 points..
