Who Will Win the Super Bowl XLVIII MVP Award?
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
One of the more popular Super Bowl prop bets is who will win the MVP. In Super Bowl 48, there are a smattering of good choices. And the odds are good enough so that we can make more than one choice. Let’s look at the odds for who will win the MVP, followed with some commentary, as we explore different choices. We’ll look at some favorites and ponder some long-shots, as well.
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Peyton Manning (DEN) QB 6/5
Russell Wilson (SEA) QB 15/4
Marshawn Lynch (SEA) RB 9/2
Demaryius Thomas (DEN) WR 18/1
Knowshon Moreno (DEN) RB 20/1
Percy Harvin (SEA) WR 20/1
Wes Welker (DEN) WR 20/1
Eric Decker (DEN) WR 25/1
Golden Tate (SEA) WR 25/1
Julius Thomas (DEN) TE 25/1
Richard Sherman (SEA) 25/1
Doug Baldwin (SEA) WR 33/1
Earl Thomas (SEA) 40/1
Champ Bailey (DEN) 66/1
Montee Ball (DEN) RB 66/1
Kam Chancellor (SEA) 75/1
Matt Prater (DEN) 75/1
Steven Hauschka (SEA) 75/1
Danny Trevathan (DEN) 100/1
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (DEN) 100/1
Duke Ihenacho (DENV) 100/1
Michael Bennett (SEA) 100/1
Zach Miller (SEA) TE: 100/1
Field (Any Other Player): 22/1
First, let’s try to narrow the field. Defensive players become MVP about as easily as they become Heisman Trophy winners. Well, maybe it’s not quite that bad, as a defensive player has been MVP on 6 different occasions, but none since 2003. Conversely, a QB has gotten the nod in 6 of the last 7 years and 13 times since 1992. While it’s conceivable that a defensive player could win, especially a Seattle defensive back, let’s focus on offense. Here are some of the more compelling candidates.
Peyton Manning: While not getting much value at 6/5, Manning is a rightful frontrunner. If Denver wins, chances are he gets the nod with anything resembling a good performance. But 6/5? That’s not much more than just taking Denver to win the game.
Russell Wilson: A better value at 15/4 and the second choice on the board. If Seattle wins, he would be a leading choice, especially if he were to do something dramatic to win the game. He might not need a stunning stat-line to take home the award.
Marshawn Lynch: A man who could win. The most-impressive running back in the postseason. Lynch at 9/2 could do a lot of the heavy-lifting for Seattle and if they win, might be a no-brainer, especially if Wilson doesn’t have a typically-MVP-worthy day.
Demaryius Thomas: The best receiver in the postseason, Thomas is on fire and will be looking to firmly imprint his name as an undisputed elite receiver in this game. If he has a big enough game to win this award, it will mean Manning also had a big game and will be a far more popular choice. Still, he’s worth a look at 20/1.
Knowshon Moreno: With everyone looking at Lynch or the Denver pass-attack, Moreno could be a nice value bet at 20/1, though it’s hard to imagine him springing to life against this defense. Still, an interesting option.
Percy Harvin: A guy who could make an impact. However, if you were going to pick a guy who has hardly played this year, you’d like to get better than 20/1. If he plays on special teams, could be worth a look. In a low-scoring game, a touchdown return could be big, especially if he manages a touchdown or some big plays as a receiver.
Let’s look at a couple long-shots to win the Most Valuable Player Award:
Doug Baldwin: At 33/1, Baldwin is an interesting choice. He went for over 100 yards receiving against San Francisco in the NFC title game and also chipped in with a huge 69-yard kickoff return. One would like to see how Seattle plans on using Baldwin because if he gets to return kicks and remains Wilson’s top target through the air, he could be a nice little darkhorse.
Julius Thomas: A definite long-shot, but one that has some upside. With Thomas, Welker, and Decker getting a lot of attention, he could become an attractive option throughout the game for Manning. Though the Seattle secondary is deep and linebackers can cover, there may be some matchup problems that Thomas presents. Worth a look at 25/1.
Loot's Picks to Win the Most Valuable Player Award: The obvious choice is Peyton Manning. If Denver wins, there's a good chance he takes down the award. I'm also making small plays on Marshawn Lynch at 9/2 and Demaryius Thomas at 20/1.
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