Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
Week 1 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, September 11, 2016 at 1PM EST
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: TB -3/ATL +3
Over/Under Total: 47.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers come to the Georgia Dome to face the Atlanta Falcons in week one NFC South action on the opening Sunday of the season. The Falcons saw some improvement in Dan Quinn's first season at the helm, going 8-8 after posting just ten wins the previous two seasons, But after a promising 5-0 start, the Falcons went 3-8 in their last 11 and are looking to reverse the momentum headed into 2016. Tampa also saw some improvement in a 6-win season, which was a 4-win improvement upon the previous season. Which team can get 2016 off on a positive note?
Last season, Tampa had a certain air of inconsistency, particularly on offense. That was to be expected with the talented but still raw QB Jameis Winston, who had ups and downs in a rookie season, but showed considerable promise. The Bucs started off at 2-4, before going on a nice stretch where they were 4-2 over a 6-game midseason stretch. The season ended on a 4-game losing streak, which contributed to the firing of Lovie Smith, with Dirk Koetter now at the helm. Having an offensively-geared head coach could give way to some better results on that side of the ball in Winston's second season behind center.
Winston's presence helped the Tampa offense become relevant again. They return Doug Martin, who was second in the league in rushing last season with 1402 yards. Charles Sims added 529 yards, while adding 51 catches and 561 yards through the air. Mike Evans is a budding star at receiver. We'll see if Vincent Jackson can stay healthy, as injuries affected his 2015 season. Together, they make a for a formidable 1-2 punch at WR. Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins will need to become a more reliable target, while TE Cameron Brate could make an impact as a key possession receiver and red-zone target. The line saw great growth from rookies Ali Marpet and Donovan Smith in 2015. Logan Mankins retired, but JR Sweezy (questionable) should fill the void. This line should be good after helping spring a nice run-game last season, while keeping Winston protected.
The Bucs didn't see the defense find its footing in a 2015 season where they were 25th in total defense—a troubling result for a group with so much talent. Mike Smith will now coordinate a defense that has the ability to be pretty darn good. The line keeps getting better with pass-rushing Gerald McCoy on the inside with Jacquies Smith, Robert Ayers, William Gholston, and Akeem Spence. The middle is good against the run with one of the league's best in Lavonte David, along with promising second-year Kwon Alexander. The secondary is on the upswing with Brent Grimes, Josh Robinson, Brad McDougald, with additions made with first-round pick Vernon Hargreaves. Safety is again an issue, however, with Chris Conte and McDougald coming off so-so seasons.
Atlanta will be looking to start the season as they did last year, but with some better follow-through. Offensively, there are still pieces to like, namely Matt Ryan at quarterback with the best in the conference in Julio Jones catching passes. Ryan was prolific with over 4500 yards, but his 21-16 TD-to-INT ratio left something to be desired. The offense also developed a real weapon in Devonta Freeman, who ran for over 1000 yards with 73 catches to boot. However, a lot of his production came in that first five games, as he slowed down at times throughout the remainder of the season. They also brought in Mohammed Sanu to help at the receiver position. And with 657 yards receiving last season, TE Jacob Tamme returns and with rookie Austin Hooper, could give the Falcons a nice 1-2 punch at tight end. The line is also coming around with the addition of Alex Mack at center, joining guards Andy Levitre and Chris Chester, with tackles Jake Matthews and Ryan Schraeder.
We'll see if Atlanta can get it together. On one hand, they have a good quarterback who never seems to miss a game. They have one of the best receivers of this generation and some talent around him on its way up. After five seasons, Ryan was 56-22 as a starter. Has this 3-year run of going 18-30 chopped away at his winning spirit? They were in great winning form, went into the dumps, started last season 5-0, before going into the toilet again. It's been a rough road with a lot of ups and downs.
The Atlanta defense naturally saw an upswing with Quinn's handiwork evident in his first year, with the ATL "D" becoming a top-half unit again. It's a start. The next step is in developing a pass-rush, with the Falcons registering an awful 19 sacks in 2015. They're hoping youngsters Vic Beasley and Ra'Shede Hageman can come around some this season, with free agent Derrick Shelby now also in the mix. Paul Worrilow is a constant in the middle and a tackling machine. Courtney Upshaw and Brooks Reed will flank him with good depth behind. Can Quinn develop a secondary like he helped do in Seattle? They probably don't have the horses, but it can still be good. They improved last season and should again this season. They have a great-looking rookie in first-round safety Keanu Neal, but he will miss some games. They signed Dashon Goldson, who joins a good strong safety in Ricardo Allen, along with corners Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford.
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A lot is going to need to go right for the Falcons in 2016. They have a good line, quarterback, and number-one receiver on offense, but the running game will need to do better than 3.8 yards a carry and there needs to be more positive contributors on that side of the ball. On defense, the secondary may not be allowed to shine unless a pass rush can unfurl in 2016 to a far-higher degree than it did last season. But the front-seven has a dreary vibe to it on "D." Three or four impact players are going to need to develop for this team to take flight. Again, there seems to be some kind of chasm on this team and there are in fact a lot of holes with what seemed like a busy, but aimless offseason direction in terms of personnel acquisition.
Both teams are stuck in that "we stink now, but we're trying to get it together" mode. Tampa's more accustomed to that role, with little in the way of success since they won the Super Bowl what seems like 1000 years ago. But this team looks like the best thing they've had since that point and one should expect some better results this season. One can't necessarily project the same thing for Atlanta—or at least not with as clear of a head. Still, this is a tough road spot for Tampa to open their season and they are the Buccaneers, after all. I just think they might be the better team and that they hold ATL close in week one, with a shot at an outright win.
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