Washington Redskins (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (6-1 SU, 3-3-1 ATS)
Week 8 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, October 27, 2013 at 4:25PM EST
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: WASH +13.5/DEN -13.5
Over/Under Total: 57.5
On Sunday, the Washington Redskins travel to Mile High to face the Denver Broncos. It isn’t often that you can say this recently, but the Redskins are coming off a win on Sunday, with Denver coming off a loss. The Redskins won a shootout against the Bears, 45-41 to notch their second win of the season. The Broncos went to 6-1 in dropping their first game to the Indianapolis Colts.
Just as Peyton Manning returned to Indy last week, there is another storyline this week that sees a man returning to his site of former glory. Redskins’ coach Mike Shanahan won a pair of Super Bowls with the Broncos. How that will resonate exactly remains to be seen, but it is surely more than just another game for Shanahan.
We shouldn’t get too locked in on the perception that the Redskins aren’t what they were last season. While there is truth in that belief, there are signs that the Redskins are turning it around a little bit. After an 0-3 start, they have won 2 of 3 games, as RG3 is slowly getting his bearings. It all seems so predictable now. Griffin, recovering from major surgery, struggled to get out of the gates on the heels of no preseason play. Then, as the season carried on, he increasingly found his footing. Makes sense. And it seems like that’s what is happening to a certain extent.
Unfortunately for Washington, Griffin’s recovery has been far from their only issue. Their defense, while not that good last season, has really shown their weaknesses this season. Only 2 teams are allowing more points per game. And good news for the Broncos improving run game is that the Skins have been ragtag stopping the rush so far this season. Only once this season have the Redskins allowed less than 27 points.
For the Skins, a lot of their upside rests on the shoulders of their young star quarterback. Not to dismiss the importance of coaching or the great play of young running back Alfred Morris, but let’s face it, a big part of why they went from the dumps to the playoffs was because of the fantastic rookie season of Griffin. So they have little choice but to hope and wait for him to reclaim the form of last year or it’s going to be tough. But he has been slowly getting back to that spot and if there’s a team in the NFC East that might have a better second half in this division, it’s probably the Redskins.
It won’t be easy at Mile High facing a Broncos team that might just be a little irritated. Manning, in particular, should be eager to air out the stink following Sunday’s loss to the Colts. It capped off an emotional week for Peyton, who didn’t seem totally comfortable with it all. Being back at home and looking to get back into the win column, look for Manning to play a focused game.
The Denver offense, though off-key for stretches against Indy, is not the problem. Manning is already over 2500 yards after just 7 games, with 25 touchdowns and just 3 picks. The run game has been picking up, with Knowshon Moreno scoring 8 touchdowns on the ground. But this is a pass-happy offense, with WR Eric Decker 2 yards off the league receiving yards lead at 627 and Damaryius Thomas tied for 4th in yardage with 610. And that’s not even mentioning Wes Welker (44-474-8) or TE Julius Thomas (36-422-8). That’s basically 4 guys with the stats of a number-one receiver.
The Denver defense, however, is another issue. Von Miller returned on Sunday and that will help when he finds his bearings more. There are only 5 teams in the league that have allowed more points than Denver. Their last 3 games have really been alarming, as they have given up 106 points in that span--not so good considering that one of those teams was Jacksonville. While their offense has bailed them out, Sunday’s game against Indy showed what can happen when their defense is not playing up-to-snuff. In other words, Denver is far from infallible, despite an offense that is putting up production on a historic level.
Let’s not let the last few weeks distract us from Denver’s true level of potential. They can put up points and they can do it quickly. Dallas and to a greater extent Indianapolis matched up well with the Broncos, but a road Washington team just might find themselves up against it. And getting 13.5 points, while nice, isn’t a foolproof safeguard. Denver can easily eat that up in the first quarter with time to spare. This seems to be a week where Denver gets back to the form of the early season.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m taking the Denver Broncos minus 13.5 points.
