Washington Redskins (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS)
Week 10 NFL
Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, November 7, 2013 at 8:25PM EST
Where: Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, Minneapolis, Minnesota
TV: NFL Network
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: WASH -2.5/MINN +2.5
Over/Under Total: 48.5
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On Thursday Night Football, the Washington Redskins visit the Metrodome to face the Minnesota Vikings. The now 1-7 Vikings showed improvement on Sunday, going into Dallas and holding the lead until Tony Romo saved the day with 35 seconds left. Washington, meanwhile, withstood a late San Diego rally on Sunday to win in overtime 30-24.
They didn’t win the game, so you can only give Minnesota so much credit, but Minnesota is showing signs that they are not the laughingstock of just a few weeks ago. Just a few weeks in the past, Peterson was struggling massively and the quarterback situation had become a mess with newly-signed Josh Freeman usurping Christian Ponder. On Sunday, they lost again. But Ponder was decent and Adrian Peterson ran for 140 yards. And the defense, though falling apart late, held a home Dallas offense to a pair of first half field goals. When looking at a 1-7 team, sometimes you have to look hard for the silver lining.
Signs are even better with the Washington Redskins, who look to finally have some really good momentum going. They have won 2 out of 3 games, with the only loss being an expected defeat at Denver. On Sunday, they beat the San Diego Chargers in overtime. The defense shut down the Chargers late on the half-yard line as the Chargers threatened to win the game with a touchdown. The field goal sent it to overtime and Washington opened with a touchdown to seal the game. One potential concern in that after a physical overtime game, Washington faces the short week and has to take to the road.
Rather than be drained, Washington might be energized. They have some positive inertia and seemed really pumped up in beating San Diego. For a team that started the season in the dumps, a little upswing can catch fire. They have a chance to get closer to .500 facing a 1-7 team. RG3 seems to be getting closer and closer to his 2012 form with each passing game. Alfred Morris continues to make his case for being one of the NFL’s premier backs. And with 172 yards receiving on Sunday, Pierre Garcon is showing he is back in full bloom.
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If Minnesota is coming into its own offensively, the Washington defense is a unit that can be exploited. The ‘Skins “D” is second-to-last in points allowed. Their pass rush is inconsistent and the run “D” is porous. It’s a hard-hitting group, a physical unit, but you can’t say it’s a necessarily effective one. Still, on Sunday they showed some of what they had in 2012--a defense with a lot of issues, but one that steps up at just the right time.
Minnesota has a lot of issues on “D.” A 1-7 team that went to the playoffs the season before is naturally going to have a lot of issues. Usually, even subpar teams are appreciably more resilient at home. But the Vikings, 30th in points allowed, have given up 31, 35, and 44 in their 3 home games this season. The Vikes are also 29th against the pass, which could spell trouble against Griffin, who is hitting his stride in the passing game. They are also having a lot of trouble stopping the run.
There are some interesting wild cards on Minnesota that could alter the game. Ponder can sense the fuse running out on his status as a starting NFL quarterback and should be expected to continue scratching and clawing. With a big game on Sunday, you have to wonder if Peterson is starting to get into one of those zones where he starts to run over defenses like Washington’s. The fact that Minnesota made the playoffs last season really underscores how hard they have fallen to 1-7. At the same time, it also means there are a lot of pieces in place that were winning games not too long ago. At some point, you’d think they were just due for a really good game and one’s spidey senses might indicate that will happen soon, perhaps even in this game.
Washington faces a long road back, but they do benefit from being in an NFC East division where no one is really taking the lead. The Cowboys went to 5-4 on Sunday and if Washington can push it to 4-5 with Dallas in New Orleans next week, they’ll be in it, despite not yet hitting the .500 mark. So they have more motivation and postseason hopes than your typical 3-5 team. They’re sort of still in the mix and one shouldn’t expect that to be lost on Mike Shanahan and this squad.
This has all the earmarks of a Vikings cover. Look for some of the good signs shown on the road against the Cowboys to manifest more against what is really an inadequate Redskins’ defense. But look for the Redskins to continue turning it around on Thursday. In a lot of ways, their season is on the line and if they can’t beat a down Vikings team in that spot, they’ll have to chalk it up as a massive failure.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting the Minnesota Vikings at +2.5 on Thursday.
