Note: If you're looking for the 2014 NFC Divisional Playoff game between these teams, please go here: New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks Pick.
New Orleans Saints (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) vs. Seattle Seahawks (10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS)
Week 13 NFL
Date/Time: Monday Night Football, December 2, 2013 at 8:30PM EST
Where: CenturyLink Stadium, Seattle, Washington
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: NO +5.5/SEA -5.5
Over/Under Total: 46.5
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On Monday Night Football, two of the top NFC conference contenders meet, as the New Orleans Saints make the trip to the Pacific Northwest to face the Seattle Seahawks. This could be a preview of the conference championship, with 9-2 Saints and 10-1 Seahawks beginning to separate a bit from the pack. The Seahawks, however, have some issues that could begin to manifest, though they’ve overcome injuries before.
One of Seattle’s strong suits is having one of the top secondaries in the league. But again, suspensions have reared their ugly head, as two of their top corners are out after failing drug tests. Now they’re looking to get Antoine Winfield back into the fold and while he is a savvy veteran, there is a reason he’s not on a team right now. When about to face Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints, the last thing you want is a secondary that is now in a state of flux. Seattle still has a pair of good safeties in there with CB Richard Sherman still healthy, so we’ll see if they can get through with what they have. Getting left tackle Russell Okung back two weeks ago is a bit of well-needed good news on the injury front. They also got Percy Harvin back last game and coming off a bye week, look for the offense to be a little better. RB Marshawn Lynch needed a break and look for Seattle to play these last 5 games with gusto. Having home-field throughout the playoffs would be huge for a team like Seattle that hasn’t lost at home in two seasons with Russell Wilson at quarterback (13-0).
New Orleans no longer needs a 400-yard performance from Drew Brees in order to win games. Their defense is 5th in the league in points allowed, quite an upgrade for a unit that broke records for defensive futility in 2012. But make no mistake, they can still sparkle on the offensive side of the ball. Drew Brees is the second-leading passer in the NFL, only 75 yards behind Peyton Manning. They have greatness spread all around the offense, with TE Jimmy Graham, WR Marques Colston, and Darren Sproles. Adding to their potential is the recent upsurge in the run-game, with Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram getting untracked. The Saints are a definite threat this season and their turnaround on defense under D.C. Rob Ryan from last season is amazing.
The Saints had lost two of three games, before winning their last 3 in a row. It looked like they had hit a wall, as their defense began to suffer a bit and the offense seemed off-rhythm. But then they annihilated Dallas, beat San Francisco, before edging Atlanta on the road last Thursday. While Seattle is coming off a bye, New Orleans should be well-rested with the super-long week.
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The last time we saw Seattle lose at home, Tavaris Jackson was the starting quarterback. Coming off a bye and with the end of the season in sight, don’t expect the Seattle faithful to be any less foaming at the mouth this week. It’s a MNF game against the team with the second-best record in the conference. It’s going to be a tough environment for Brees and Company, though let’s remember this team won the Super Bowl not too long ago and a lot of those key guys are still on the team. In other words, if a team is going to be able to upset the apple cart in Seattle, why not the Saints?
In the Seahawks’ 13 straight wins at home, they are 8-5 ATS, so they aren’t as infallible at the betting windows as they are in a straight-up sense. In addition, the Seahawks have a stranglehold on the division lead. They still want home-field and have some work to do to lock that up. But the Saints have the red-hot Panthers nipping on their heels, a team they still have to play twice. They really can’t afford too many more slip-ups if they want a desirable playoff slot.
Considering the somewhat contrasting senses of urgency among the two teams, the now-tattered Seattle secondary, and the inherent matchup problems that may provide for the ‘Hawks, New Orleans is worth a look. Seattle may be, for the sake of a better explanation, a team that is “due” for a bad game. And even if they play well, I anticipate New Orleans can do enough damage to keep it close and therefore cover the spread.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m taking the New Orleans Saints plus 5.5 points.
